Climate change, rising consumption, and challenges in water management are making Central Asia increasingly vulnerable to a water crisis. Experts warn that without an urgent revision of water policies, the region’s capitals could face a crisis comparable to the situation in Tehran.
Over the past 40 years, per capita water availability in Central Asia has fallen by more than threefold—from 8,400 to 2,500 cubic meters per year. This makes water scarcity one of the main threats to the region’s economic development, according to experts from the international analytical center New Lines Institute.
In a report published in February 2026, the institute warned: “Water scarcity is becoming one of the key threats to economic development and stability in Central Asia.”
Experts stress that current trends could further worsen the situation unless countries in the region revise their approaches to water resource management.
Several key figures illustrate the scale of the emerging crisis.
Central Asia’s water crisis in numbers
· 80% of all water in Central Asia is used in agriculture
· 40% of water is lost due to outdated irrigation systems
· +4°C → 80% of glaciers could disappear if temperatures rise by +4°C
· 8400 → 2500 m³ — decline in per-capita water availability in Central Asian countries
· 1700 m³ — level of chronic water scarcity expected by 2030
· 92% — loss of water volume in the Aral Sea
· 8–20% — possible reduction in the Amu Darya river flow due to the Qosh-Tepa Canal
· 5 million people — at risk of climate migration in the region over the next 25 years
