DUSHANBE, May 14, 2015, Asia-Plus — FAO”s biannual
Food Outlook
report notes that international prices for agricultural commodities continued to decline in April and abundant inventories are poised to offset any pressure from the slight reduction in global harvests expected this year.
According to the latest forecasts in the report, worldwide cereal production will likely decline by 1.5 percent from last year”s record-breaking output, mainly due to reduced acreage planted with maize, but the impact will be cushioned by “exceptionally high” levels of existing stocks.
FAO”s first forecast for global cereal production in 2015, assuming normal weather conditions for the remainder of the season, amounts to 2.509 billion tons, a bit down from last year”s record but nearly 5 percent above the average of the past five years.
The modest decline in output would require running inventories down by around 3 percent in the new season (2015/16), with faster drawdowns for coarse grains and rice than for wheat.
The world food import bill is forecast to reach a five-year low in 2015, the report says, mainly driven by a decline in international prices, low freight rates and a strong US dollar. Import volumes of the various food components of the bill were little changed or even rising. Low income countries are also expected to benefit from lower import bills.
International food prices are likely to stay under downward pressure due to large supplies and a strong U.S. dollar, according to the
Food Outlook
, which noted that “currency movements and macroeconomic developments may have important implications for markets again in 2015-16.”
Food Outlook
also includes a special feature focusing on price volatility, highlighting a need to investigate whether volatility has returned to normal or not.
