DUSHANBE, May 26, 205, Asia-Plus — The spring 2015 edition of biannual Tajikistan Economic Update “Slowing Growth, Rising Uncertainties,” which was released by the World Bank on May 25 notes that poverty continued to fall in Tajikistan in 2014, but the rate of decline is expected to moderate in 2015–16 due to Russia’s recession.
According to the seasonally adjusted national official poverty measure, poverty in Tajikistan fell to about 36 percent in 2012–13 and to 34.5 percent in 2013–2014.
According to the latest estimates based on the household budget survey (HBS), extreme poverty fell from 19.4 percent in 2012–2013 to 18.5 percent in 2013–2014.
The report says that at the international poverty line of US$2.50 a day at purchasing power parity (PPP), poverty declined from 40.9 percent in 2012 to an estimated 33.8 percent in 2014.
An important characteristic of poverty in Tajikistan is that it is highly seasonal, according to the report. Poverty rates can fluctuate substantially from one quarter of the year to the next, making it difficult to identify the poor. According to the HBS, in a given four-quarter period about 50 percent of households are never poor and about 10 percent are chronically poor. The remaining 40 percent move back and forth across the poverty line. There are several reasons for the churning and the seasonal fluctuation of poverty in Tajikistan. The most important is that in agricultural areas, seasons affect the primary source of income for many households. At harvest time, there is often more work available, and more income for those who produce and sell agricultural goods. In seasons when there is little agricultural activity, however, incomes may be lower, reducing the amount that people can afford to consume. The availability of types of work outside the agricultural sector also varies seasonally, as do remittances from labor migrants; more remittances flow in during summer and autumn. Furthermore, churning is remarkably high: every quarter many poor households exit poverty and many non-poor households enter it. Reasons for churning are closely related to seasonality.
