The economy of Tajikistan demonstrated steady growth in January-March 2026. According to preliminary data from the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, the volume of the country’s economy amounted to 35.9 billion somoni, an increase of 8% in real terms compared to the same period last year.
According to statistical data, the deflator (an indicator of price changes) for this period was 7.6%.
The growth of the economy was driven by positive dynamics in key sectors — agriculture, industry, and construction. The gross value added of these sectors accounted for 84.8% of the total economy and provided a growth of 6.9 percentage points.
The largest contributions to economic growth came from the service sector and manufacturing industries. Services added 4.4 percentage points to the overall growth, while manufacturing industries contributed 2.5 percentage points.
Among individual sectors, a significant share is occupied by:
– industry — 19.1%;
– trade and services (including hotels and restaurants) — 18.0%.
The share of net taxes in the economic structure was 15.2%, providing 1.1 percentage points of the total growth.Short-term indicators of key sectors development
| Indictor | January – March 2026, in current prices, million somoni | % of total | Impact on growth, % |
| Short-term indicator of key sectors development | 35945.1 | 100.0 | 8.0 |
| Including: | |||
| Agriculture, forestry, and fishing | 2249.7 | 6.3 | 0.4 |
| Industry | 6927.7 | 19.1 | 1.1 |
| Construction | 2917.3 | 8.1 | 0.9 |
| Wholesale and retail trade; vehicle repair; hotels and restaurants | 6418.4 | 17.9 | 2.2 |
| Transport activities and cargo storage | 4817.9 | 13.4 | 2.3 |
| Other service sectors | 7166.3 | 19.9 | 2.3 |
| Net taxes on products | 5447.8 | 15.2 | 1.1 |
The authorities of Tajikistan expect that by the end of 2026, the real growth of the country’s economy will be at least 8%.
Meanwhile, international financial organizations provide more restrained assessments. In particular:
– The International Monetary Fund forecasts Tajikistan’s economic growth at around 6–7%.
– The World Bank expects growth in the range of 5–6%.
– The Asian Development Bank estimates the prospects at about 6%.
– The Eurasian Development Bank forecasts the country’s economic growth at around 7%.
Recall that by the end of 2025, the real growth of Tajikistan’s economy was 8.4%, and the GDP volume reached almost 176.9 billion somoni (about $19 billion).
