DUSHANBE, November 5, 2008, Asia-Plus — According to estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation will stand at 16 percent in Tajikistan by the end of this year, Dr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, head of the IMF International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) mission to Tajikistan, announced at a press conference in Dushanbe today.
According to him, inflation has stood at high level this year and it reached its peak in August. Since August, decrease in inflation rate has been to be observed and it expected to stand at 16 percent by the end of December, the IMF official said.
He also noted that the Fund had reviewed economic growth rate for Tajikistan. Thus, the economic growth rate for 2008 was increased from 5 to 7 percent. It is good result taking into consideration the past difficult winter.
On the prospects for 2009, Mr. Schimmelpfennig noted that like many other countries Tajikistan would be faced with many complicated external factors. He noted that forecasts of economic growth rate for Russia and Kazakhstan had been reviewed towards reduction and that would most likely affect remittances to Tajikistan and the Tajik export volumes. Concerning the remittances to Tajikistan, he added that forecasts on the remittances to Tajikistan were still uncertain. Some experts say they will decrease while others say they will increase. “According to the IMF estimates, the remittances will probably remain unchangeable,” Schimmelpfennig said.
According to the IMF estimates, food and fuel prices will be decreasing in 2009. Prices are expected to decrease by 20 percent.
“Reduction of prices will help contain inflation in Tajikistan,” the IMF official said, adding that practically all food products in the country are imported from other countries. According to him, food products account for some 60 percent of the overall rate of inflation. Reduction or stabilization of prices of basic food products in Tajikistan will improve state of low-income sections of the population that were affected by the price hike. Inflation is expected to decrease to 12-10 percent in 2009.
