DUSHANBE, December 27, 2011, Asia-Plus — Development trends in Tajikistan’s economy that were shown in the first half-year of 2011 remained intact in the third quarter of the year as well, “CIS Micromonitor” by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) says.
The EDB experts, in particular, note that growth in the domestic trade and the service sphere has been provided mostly due to money remittances. “Under the conditions of high prices of export commodities (aluminum, cotton fiber) and continuing growth in the economies of trade partners, the Government of Tajikistan expects further slowdown in inflation and economic growth rate for 2012 to stand at up to 8 percent,” the survey said.
According to the survey, experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are less optimistic and they expect Tajik inflation to stand at 8.85 percent and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to stand at 6 percent next year. According to forecasts by the IMF, this year’s money remittances will reach the level of the pre-crisis year of 2008 and remittance inflows will continue to increase in 2012. Tajikistan’s balance of payments deficit will amount to 6.7 percent of GDP, the EDB experts noted.
“The situation regarding non-working loans in the financial sector evokes a certain concern and changing this situation for the better requires development by the National Bank of Tajikistan of the system of task-oriented measures. The dominant position of national investments in the economy remains intact, while contribution of the private sector into the savings and credit activity is low and continuing to drop. A relatively small share of the private sector in the country’s economy is explainable if to take into consideration problems existing in the investment climate, infrastructure and banking sector. The national budget deficit, including capital expenditure, is expected to amount to 5 percent of GDP in 2012.”
According to the EDB experts, the level of social spending remains low in the country.
Tajikistan’s economy remains vulnerable to effects of negative shocks resulting both from change in the prices of the country’s exports and imports and from external financing.
Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial organization founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006. The members of the Bank are Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Belarus (2010). Other states or international organizations can become members by joining the Agreement Establishing the EDB.
The Bank has authorized capital in exceeds US$1.5 billion, which was formed of contributions by its member states: Russia (US$1billion), Kazakhstan (US$500 million), Armenia (US$100,000), Tajikistan (US$500,000) and Belarus (US$15 million). The authorized capital may be increased by resolution of the Bank’s Council. The Bank has the status of an international organization, and is subject to international law.
