DUSHANBE, November 28, 2014, Asia-Plus — The World Bank’s latest issue of
Migration and Development Brief
, released last month, says remittances by international migrants from developing countries are on course for strong growth this year, while at the same time forced migration due to violence and conflict has reached unprecedented levels.
Officially recorded remittances to developing countries are expected to reach $435 billion this year, an increase of 5 percent over 2013. The growth rate this year is substantially faster than the 3.4 percent growth recorded in 2013, driven largely by remittances to Asia and Latin America.
Remittances to developing countries will continue climbing in the medium term, reaching an estimated $454 billion in 2015.
Global remittances, including those to high-income countries, are estimated at $582 billion this year, rising to $608 billion next year.
Remittances remain an especially important and stable source of private inflows to developing countries, as they bring in large amounts of foreign currency that help sustain the balance of payments. In 2013, remittances were significantly higher than foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries (excluding China) and were three times larger than official development assistance.
The
Brief
notes that the global average cost of sending remittances continued its downward trend in the third quarter of 2014, falling to 7.9 percent of the value sent, compared to 8.9 percent a year earlier. However, the cost of sending money to Africa remains stubbornly high, exceeding 11 percent.
Remittance flows are expected to grow robustly to almost all regions of the developing world, except Europe and Central Asia, where the conflict in Ukraine and associated sanctions are contributing to an economic slowdown in Russia, home to a large number of migrants from the region.
India, with the world’s largest emigrant stock of 14 million people, will remain in the top spot this year, attracting about $71 billion in remittances. Other large recipients are China ($64 billion), the Philippines ($28 billion), Mexico ($24 billion), Nigeria ($21 billion), Egypt ($18 billion), Pakistan ($17 billion), Bangladesh ($15 billion), Vietnam ($11 billion) and Ukraine ($9 billion).
As a share of GDP (2013), the top recipients of remittances were Tajikistan (42 percent), Kyrgyzstan (32 percent), Nepal (29 percent), Moldova (25 percent), Lesotho and Samoa (24 percent each), Armenia and Haiti (both 21 percent), the Gambia (20 percent) and Liberia (18 percent).
In a special analysis on forced migration, the
Brief
notes that forced migration due to conflict is at its highest level since World War II, affecting more than 51 million people. An additional 22 million people have been forced to move due to natural disasters, bringing the total affected by forced migration to at least 73 million, according to the latest available data.
Forced migration is typically viewed as a humanitarian issue but affects growth, employment and public spending for both origin and destination countries. The issue needs to be examined also through a development lens, says the brief.
Forced migration is a major challenge in several regions. In developing Europe and Central Asia, 1 million people in Ukraine have been displaced, while the high-income countries of Europe are receiving record numbers of asylum seekers. Applications to the entire region rose to over 480,000, an increase of 68 percent from 2009.
We will recall that almost 4.5 billion U.S. dollars were remitted to banks in Tajikistan in 2013.
