WFP: Impact of the Russian economic slowdown will be felt more severely in spring

Date:

DUSHANBE, March 20, 2015, Asia-Plus — Tajikistan Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS) Bulletin for February 2015, prepared by UN World Food Programme (WFP) notes that seasonal food insecurity observed in December 2014 shows no improvement compared to November 2012.

Change, however, is noticeable against last April, with an increase at both ends of the spectrum: more households have become food secure (22 percent) but more households have also become severely/moderately food insecure (23 percent), which is a cause for concern at the beginning of the lean season, the Bulletin says.

A lower wheat harvest and a poor potato harvest reportedly contributed to reduced household food stocks compared to the same period of the year in previous FSMS rounds.  A depreciated national currency and higher regional food prices also pushed up local food prices thereby decreasing access to food.

Food consumption scores deteriorated with 11 percent of the households scoring ‘borderline’ and 5 percent ‘poor’.  The FSMS also observed that households whose income relies mostly on social benefits, welfare or daily wage labor were the most affected.

The increased return of labor migrants and the decreasing volume of remittances have impacted households’ welfare and food security: remittances were the main source of income for only 15 percent of households in December 2014, against 27 percent in November 2012.

The report says the impact of the Russian economic slowdown, however, will be felt more severely in the spring, when most seasonal labor migrants normally leave for Russia to seek employment.  Overall food security is expected to deteriorate throughout the lean season, until the start of the winter harvest in May.

Food security should, therefore, be monitored closely in the coming months, especially in livelihood zones showing the most signs of vulnerability: the Rasht valley, the Ghonchi and Istaravshan area, the Eastern Pamir plateau and most of the Khatlon province, the Bulletin notes.

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