Dushanbe. 21 August. “Asia Plus” — The steep drop of the Kazakh currency (tenge), sent on August 20 by the Kazakh authorities in a free swimming, provoked some nervousness in the foreign exchange market of the capital of Tajikistan.
Most of the exchange offices in Dushanbe in conditions of uncertainty today refrain from selling dollar, citing on the lack of US currency.
There are only some points where dollar can be bought at a higher rate: speculators in foreign currency ask 6.85 somoni for one dollar. This is despite the fact that fixed by the National bank of Tajikistan dollar currency remains unchanged – 6,52-6,54 somoni for one dollar.
National Bank of Tajikistan has not commented the possible impact of the situation that has arisen around tenge in the foreign exchange market yet.
Meanwhile, economist Nozim Ishankulov believes that there is no need to wait the stability of somoni against the background of the neighboring countries` currencies collapse.
Moreover, he said, since the active devaluation of the Tajik currency at the beginning of the year, the inner factors have not changed. “Remittances continue to fall and the importance of export, investments and foreign exchange reserves of the NBT are the same low – said Ishankulov. – External factors will add to the internal factors. The ongoing collapse of the ruble, yuan, and after him tenge, som, and the Belarusian ruble can cause panic in the currency market of Tajikistan. ”
He stressed that such a picture was in February 2009, when the tenge has been devalued by 18% in one day. “With the collapse of the Kazakh currency began the fluffy among the population, which led to the active falling of somoni the next day – recalled the expert. – NBT immediately made an issue about the absence of the fundamental reasons for the devalvation in order to stabilize the situation. But now the silence of the regulator in such hectic times perplexes. ”
“Although there is no active currency exchange in the country – said Ishankulov – but because of the high dollarization of the economy, a large number of entrepreneurs expect further prospects of somoni. If the NBT will continue to remain silent, it can cause nervousness among the population. Businessmen will be forced to either stop the sales, or increase the price to secure the losses from the growing rate. Speculator in foreign currency, who will wait for the new exchange rate, would do the same.”
