Tajikistan can consider several action options in Afghanistan. However, ultimately, Tajikistan will stop on that option for which the partners would be found, who are ready for the active regional policy. This is stated in the report of the experts Ivan Safranchuk, Akbarsho Iskandarov and Kosimsho Iskandarov, prepared by the international discussion club “Valdai”.
The report explores the reasons for the increased instability in the north of Afghanistan and the threat that this process brings to the Central Asian countries. The author also analyzes the Tajikistan`s approaches of protection against threats in Afghanistan.
The authors note that the situation in the sphere of security in Afghanistan is getting worse every year, despite the efforts of the international community. USA and its allies continue to support the government in Kabul with its armed forces, and the world”s major donors fill most of the Afghan budget.
“By virtue of the high interconnection processes in Afghanistan and in all neighboring countries, regional forces are closely monitoring the situation in Kabul. The most fragile and prone to Afghan instability are the country on the north”, – experts say.
They believe that at the moment the priority of Tajikistan is this co-operation with the official Kabul. “However, if the political crisis will completely paralyze the central government of Afghanistan, Tajikistan can fluctuate between the negotiation with individual members of the anti-government armed groups (AAG) or to maintain friendly warlords, who are fighting with AAG. The last can be carried out both on a small scale or grow to a full program of formation of a “buffer zone” in the north-east and north of Afghanistan, which will allow to contain the AAG on the distant approaches to the border. The work in this “buffer zone” is possible not only by the methods of hard power, but also “soft” – with the help of the program, with the assistance to the local population to support its practical interest and moral determination to resist the AAG “- say the authors of the report.
“So, – conclude the experts – Tajikistan can consider several options in Afghanistan, but, ultimately, Tajikistan will stop on that option for which the partners would be found, who are ready for the active regional policy”.
