Over the first six months of this year, consumer price and rates have risen on average 2.3 percent, which is 1.6 percent fewer compared to the same period last year, according the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan.
Over the reporting period, the cost of products of the food industry has reportedly increased in the country on average by 3.0 percent.
The increase in cost of products of the food industry was reportedly caused by a 43-percent increase in prices for rice; 23.5-percent increase in prices for sugar; 24.6-percentncrease in prices for fruits; and 3.4-percent increase in prices for vegetables.
Over the same-six month period, prices for non-foodstuffs have reportedly increased in the country on average by 2.9 percent with the prices increasing most significantly for the following goods: gasoline – 12.4 percent; pharmaceutical products – 8.4 percent; building materials – 4.5 percent.
Meanwhile, prices and rates for services rendered to the population in January-June this year have decreased on average by 0.4 percent. Prices for air tickets have decreased over the reporting period on average by 2.8 percent.
In 2022, year-end inflation in Tajikistan stood at 4.2 percent; the lowest inflation rate since the country’s independence.
The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) predicts this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan at 6.0 percent.
The World Bank’s report entitled “Weak Growth, High Inflation, and Cost-of-Living Crisis: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update” says the average consumer price index (CPI inflation declined to 6.6 percent in 2022 from 9.0 percent a year earlier.
The report notes that this year, inflation is expected to decrease gradually and remain within the NBT’s 4.0–8.0 percent target range, supported by tight monetary policy.
The external position is reportedly expected to normalize after a peak in 2022. Moreover, the World Bank economists believe that reduced global demand is expected to weaken Tajikistan’s export of precious metals and minerals.
According to the report, this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan is expected to stand at 5.6 percent, and over the next two years, it will stand at 6.5 percent.
The “Macroeconomic Review: April 2023”, released by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) on April 10, predicts this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan to stand at 6.0 percent.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes that inflation, which slowed to 4.2% in 2022, is projected to accelerate to 7.0% in 2023, reflecting possible currency depreciation in tandem with a weakening Russian ruble, further increases in consumer lending, salary hikes for some civil servants, and a rise in pensions. Inflation is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2024 as global food prices moderate, the ADB says.
