Tajikistan has been ranked among the countries with a moderate terrorist threat level, securing the 41st spot in the updated Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2026. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), Tajikistan's threat index stands at 2.602, indicating a relatively stable situation compared to the most affected regions, but the risk persists.
The top three countries with the highest levels of terrorist activity are Pakistan (8.574), Burkina Faso (8.324), and Niger (7.816). Other highly unsafe countries include Nigeria, Mali, Syria, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where terrorism continues to significantly impact public security.
Tajikistan and its neighbors
Tajikistan falls into the category of countries with moderate terrorist threats, while its neighbors Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan report lower threat indices. Uzbekistan, with an index of 0.114, ranked 96th, while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan ranked 100th with an index of 0, indicating minimal threat levels in these countries.
Global terrorism: improvements, but challenges remain
Despite significant reductions in terrorism in 2025, the report authors warn that the situation could worsen due to new global conflicts. In 2025, deaths from terrorist attacks decreased by 28%, and the number of attacks fell by nearly 22%. Improvements were noted in 81 countries, while the situation worsened in 19 countries, marking the lowest number of deteriorations in the history of the index.
The analysis highlights a shift in the nature of terrorism, which is now largely concentrated in border areas. Over 41% of attacks occur within 50 km of borders, and 64% occur within 100 km. These regions often remain weakly controlled, making them centers of terrorist activity.
Geopolitical situation and 2026 forecasts
The geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate, raising serious concerns for the future. The authors of the report suggest that the improvements recorded in 2025 may be temporary rather than the start of a sustained decrease in terrorism. The forecast for 2026 indicates the continuation of terrorism threats, particularly in border and unstable regions.
About the Global Terrorism Index (GTI)
The GTI is calculated based on several factors, including the number of terrorist incidents, casualties, severity of consequences, the number of hostages, and the effectiveness of counterterrorism efforts. These data provide crucial information for international organizations such as the UN and World Bank and influence foreign investment decisions.
Conclusion
The 2026 Global Terrorism Index highlights that while global violence has decreased, the threat of terrorism remains significant and concentrated in certain regions, including Tajikistan. Experts call for further improvements in counterterrorism approaches and increased cooperation among countries in the field of security.
