DUSHANBE
, July 14, Asia-Plus – On July 8, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller reported his company”s plans to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. He spoke about a steady, long-term growth of gas prices for all consumers, be it in
Western Europe
, next-door neighbors, or at home.
Miller specified that by the end of this year, the average European price for gas will exceed $500 per 1,000 cubic meters compared with the current price of US $410.
Gas will become more expensive for Gazprom as well. The Russian gas monopoly is buying large amounts of gas in Central Asia (
Turkmenistan
,
Kazakhstan
, and
Uzbekistan
), and then reselling it at a profit, mostly to
Ukraine
. This year, its main Central Asian supplier,
Turkmenistan
, is selling gas to Gazprom at an average price of US $140 per 1,000 cubic meters, while Gazprom is reselling it to
Ukraine
for US $179.5 per the same amount.
But starting with next year, the Central Asian countries will want to at least double their prices to Gazprom, which will bring them closer to European prices. Next year, Gazprom may have to pay US $280-$300 per 1,000 cubic meters of Turkmen gas.
Gazprom”s CEO told Putin that he considers this position justified. He said that it is important for Russia to keep its Central Asian partners interested in selling gas to it in order to prevent the implementation of alternative gas supply projects which could bypass Russia, like the Trans-Caspian or Nabucco gas pipelines. Miller said that Gazprom is planning to buy gas from
Azerbaijan
, and in the future, even from
Iran
with a view to reselling it elsewhere.
If Gazprom comes to terms with its Central Asian partners on average European prices, it will resell it to
Ukraine
for much more than it does now, maybe for US$400 or even more per 1,000 cubic meters.
Ukraine
is still hoping for a gradual price increase to the European level over the next four years, but this is not likely to happen.
Having told the prime minister about successes at home, Miller switched to Gazprom”s favorite subject of equal revenues from domestic and foreign gas supplies. Today the domestic gas prices for industrial consumers in
Russia
are five times less than in
Europe
. The government wanted to increase these prices by 25% a year in 2008-2010. The state-regulated price was supposed to reach the “equal-netback” level on January 1, 2011. In other words, Gazprom”s profits from domestic industrial consumers were supposed to match those produced from sales at average European prices.
But last spring, the Ministry of Economic Development was shocked to realize that gas prices at home would double in 2011 over 2010, if the “equal-netback” principle is applied. Therefore, last April the government ruled that gas prices in 2011 may grow by only 40% over 2010.
But during this meeting with the prime minister, Miller said, without batting an eye, that the “equal-netback” principle will operate from January 1, 2011. When gas prices were discussed in April, Putin was president and could not correct Miller on this point. But he emphasized right away that gas price regulation for the population will be preserved indefinitely after 2011 as well. Regardless, it is clear that prices will only be going up.
In general, such giants as Gazprom (it is the world”s fourth largest company in terms of capitalization – more than US$ 300 billion) should have several strategies for development, pursuant to the constantly changing market. It should have at least two strategies, one optimistic and one conservative.
In general, Gazprom relies exclusively on never ending oil price increases, which will inevitably be followed by increased gas prices. Miller predicts that next year, a barrel of oil will cost $250. Last week, on July 3, world oil prices skyrocketed to an incredible $146 per barrel, whereas on July 8-9 they were fluctuating at a much lower level – $136-$137 per barrel.
Such leaps show that the raw materials markets are now dominated by profiteers who have blown prices out of proportion. But this could break up at any time, and gas prices will inevitably follow suit.
