The European Commission announced the upcoming 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions, which will be now not against Russia, but against third countries supplying sanctioned goods to the Russian Federation. An article posted on CABAR.asia’s website on April 14 says Central Asian nations fell under suspicion because they boosted their exports to Russia in 2022. In March, the EU Special Representative made an ‘inspection’ visit to Kyrgyzstan, and similar meetings will be held in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan at the end of April.
The provision of material support to Russia’s military and defense industrial base will have severe consequences regarding their access to the EU market.
The article notes that it means goods that may have dual use such as microchips of washing machines or photo cameras, which, according to some experts, can be used to repair military equipment.
According to the media outlet, the trade between Russia and Central Asian states saw a significant uptake between 60 and 80 percent.
CABAR.asia analyzed the national databases of foreign trade for 2021-2022 and draw the following conclusions: the two-way trade between Kazakhstan and Russia in 2022 increased by 6.15 (rise in exports from Kazakhstan – 25%); the bilateral trade between Kyrgyzstan and Russia increased by 40.3% (exports from Kyrgyzstan increased 2.4 times); and the bilateral trade between Uzbekistan and Russia showed growth in the value by 23.4% (Uzbekistan’s exports to Russia increased by 49%).
The article notes that according to the report of the head of Russia’s government, Mikhail Mishustin, the trade turnover between Russia and Tajikistan in 2022 increased by 18% and reached the record level of 1.5 billion US dollars.
Meanwhile, according to data from the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, the two-way trade between Tajikistan and the Russian Federation last year valued at 1,673,908,400 US dollars. This consisted of Tajikistan’s exports to Russia estimated at US$88,221,300 and Tajikistan’s imports from Russia worth US$1,585,687,100.
Compared to 2021, Tajikistan’s exports to Russia last year increased by about 8.7 million US dollars or about 12%.
The article says the evidence base is very important when charged with evasion of sanctions, especially taking into account the official position that largest countries of Central Asia meet the requirements of prohibition of re-export to Russia.
Western media reports reportedly also said about hypothetical sanctions in the context of evidences available to prove parallel import to Russia.
Therefore, before making big statements or imposing sanctions, representatives of the European Union planned to hold a range of meetings in the regional countries, the article says, noting that one of them was already held on March 28 in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek. Special envoy of the European Union, David O’Sullivan, reportedly visited Kyrgyzstan.
Experts believe that imposing secondary hard-hitting sanctions by the West against Central Asian nations at the national level is the unlikely scenario.
If they prove the cases of re-export, the measures will be directed against violators, not the country.
