The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) presented the latest issue of the Macroeconomic Review for its six member states on March 13. The Macroeconomic Review is a regular publication by the EDB, which provides a snapshot of the macroeconomic situation and projects short-term developments in its member countries. The Review also contains statistical information on key macroeconomic indicators.
The EDB Macroeconomic Review: March 2023 notes that last month saw signs that the risk of recession in the global economy had subsided. Global business activity livened up in February compared to the previous month, with the composite PMI rising to 52.1 points – above the 50-point threshold for the first time since July 2022. China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy has reportedly been an important factor in supporting business activity globally and in EDB member nations.
However, the Review notes that a month of growing global business activity after a half-year contraction does not yet indicate that the world’s economy has stabilized and the trend has reversed, which means that the risk of recession remains substantial.
Global developments reportedly have different impacts on EDB economies. According to the Reviews, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan demonstrated high growth rates in early 2023. Russia’s seasonally adjusted GDP, according to the EDB’s calculations, grew slightly in January compared to the previous month. Belarus reportedly can expect a slowdown in its economic decline as early as February and growth in the second quarter.
Concerning Tajikistan, the Review notes that Tajikistan’s trade deficit in January amounted to 265.1 million US dollars, which is 43.4 million US dollars fewer than in January last year (In January 2022, Tajikistan’s trade deficit stood at 308.5 million US dollars).
A trade deficit occurs when a country imports more than it exports. In other words, when a country buys more than it sells, it has a trade deficit.
The Review says the reduction of the negative balance was facilitated by the decline in imports from 443 million US dollars to 385.1 million US dollars, which is due to the slowdown in real growth in consumer demand in the economy and stabilization of the international prices for raw materials, including energy carriers and food products imported by Tajikistan.
Exports reportedly fell less than imports – from 134.5 million US dollars to 120 million US dollars. Decrease in deliveries of metals (both non-precious metals and gold) and textiles abroad was partially offset by growth in export of ore concentrates, cement and electric power.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia. For more than fifteen years, the Bank has worked to strengthen and expand economic ties and foster comprehensive development in its member countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US$7 billion. Its portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in transport infrastructure, digital systems, green energy, agriculture, manufacturing, and mechanical engineering. The Bank’s operations are guided by the UN Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles.
