Over the first four months of this year, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Tajikistan has stood at 2.3 percent, which is 0.1 percent lower than in the same period last year, according to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan.
Over the reporting period, the cost of products of the food industry has reportedly increased in the country on average by 3.9 percent. The increase in cost of products of the food industry was reportedly caused by a 37.2-percent increase in prices for vegetables; 18-percent increase in prices for fruits; milk – 7.2 percent; lamb – 2.8 percent; chickens – 0.8 percent; and sugar – 0.1 percent.
Over the same four-month period, prices for non-foodstuffs have reportedly increased in the country on average by 1.6 percent with the prices increasing most significantly for the following goods: detergents and pharmaceutical products – 3.6 percent each; and gasoline – 3.4 percent.
Meanwhile, prices and rates for services rendered to the population in January-April have decreased on average by 0.4 percent. The ones that decreased over the reporting period were: liquefied natural gas (LNG) provided to the population – 25.7 percent; and transport services – 0.7 percent.
In 2022, year-end inflation in Tajikistan stood at 4.2 percent; the lowest inflation rate since the country’s independence. Last year, prices for products of the food industry, prices for non-foodstuffs and prices and rates for services rendered to the population increased by 5.2 percent, 4.0 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.
The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) predicts this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan at 6.0 percent.
The World Bank’s report entitled “Weak Growth, High Inflation, and Cost-of-Living Crisis: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update” says the average CPI inflation declined to 6.6 percent in 2022 from 9.0 percent a year earlier. The report notes that this year, inflation is expected to decrease gradually and remain within the NBT’s 4.0–8.0 percent target range, supported by tight monetary policy. The external position is reportedly expected to normalize after a peak in 2022. Moreover, the World Bank economists believe that reduced global demand is expected to weaken Tajikistan’s export of precious metals and minerals. According to the report, this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan is expected to stand at 5.6 percent, and over the next two years, it will stand at 6.5 percent.
The “Macroeconomic Review: April 2023”, released by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) on April 10, predicts this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan to stand at 6.0 percent.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes that inflation, which slowed to 4.2% in 2022, is projected to accelerate to 7.0% in 2023, reflecting possible currency depreciation in tandem with a weakening Russian ruble, further increases in consumer lending, salary hikes for some civil servants, and a rise in pensions. Inflation is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2024 as global food prices moderate, the ADB says.
