DUSHANBE, May 17, 215, Asia-Plus – The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) must refrain from intervening at foreign exchange market due to insufficiency of its currency and gold reserves, Anvar Kamolov, an expert in the Tajik financial system, told Asia-Plus in an interview.
“Gold and currency reserves of Tajik central bank are now extremely limited,” said Kamolov. “According to some estimates, Tajikistan’s current gold and currency reserves amount to 300-400 million U.S. dollars, and therefore, there ought not to conduct even limited interventions at the foreign exchange market.”
At the same time, Tajik expert considers that Tajik central bank must continue taking measures to prevent illegal currency transactions and chase currency speculators.
“I think that it would be possible to reopen of part of private currency exchange points but under control of banks. Other options include conclusion of short-term swaps with banks of Russia, China and Kazakhstan, monetization and security of non-certified gold produced in the country, and direct sale of currency to key suppliers with condition of fixation prices for key imported goods (grain, fuels),” Kamolov added.
We will recall that Tajik central bank officials noted on March 13 the National Bank will apply measures to hold the exchange rate of the Tajik national currency, the somoni, stable. According to the NBT, pressure on the exchange rate of the national currency demand was fueled by mass media and unfavorable geopolitical situation. To counterbalance these forces, the NBT reportedly intervened at foreign exchange market with USD 1.5 – 3.0 million daily. Also, access of the population to foreign currency, sell foreign currency through foreign exchange points, but through commercial banks. Besides applying economic measures, National Bank, Prosecutor’s Office and Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan were putting administrative pressure on foreign exchange market and chasing “speculators.”
Operations of private currency-exchange points were suspended in the country on April 17. The blanket ban on private exchange offices meant more than half of the country’s exchange offices – 818 out of a total 1,581 – were shuttered, leaving 763 operating.
Despite these economic and administrative continued to depreciate. It is worth mentioning that dollarization in Tajikistan is very high. Trust in the national currency is not strong and dollars are used by people as a means of saving (over80% of deposits are in foreign currency) and for conducting medium and large transactions.
