The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) says the situation in the country’s currency market is under control.
Tajik central bank states it has all necessary means and opportunities to provide stability in the domestic currency market.
“Analysis shows that the current situation in the domestic currency market is sustainable compared to the same period last year,” a statement released by the NBT said.
Over the same period of 2016, the national currency, the somoni, had reportedly lost 10.6 percent of its value against the dollar at the official exchange rate and 5.7 percent at the market exchange rate. This year, the somoni, has lost so far 1.7 percent of its value against the dollar at the official exchange rate and 4.8 percent at the market exchange rate, according to the NBT statement.
Meanwhile the somoni exchange rate is continuing to slide.
The market exchange rate the U.S. dollar (USD) against the somoni rose from 1:8.12 on March 7 to 1:8.16 on March 10.
While major commercial banks like Agroinvestbonk, Tojik Sodirot Bonk (TSB), and Orienbonk had no dollars to speak of, some smaller lenders had small amounts to go around.
Some experts attribute the sudden dollar crisis to the recent effort by the government to recapitalize a number of distressed banks.
Representatives of Tajik central bank say the dollar deficit has a temporary effect and is typical for the current season “when the country’s foreign currency receipts are at the relatively low level.”
Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.
In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years. Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 1.5 percent the rate established by the National Bank.
Even the Finance Ministry has long freely admitted the somoni is set for gradual devaluation, which explains why people are so eager to get rid of their stocks. According to the ministry’s forecasts, the somoni is projected to slide to 9.6 somoni to the dollar this year, to 10.4 somoni in 2018 and to 11.2 somoni in 2019.
