DUSHANBE, March 25, 2009, Asia-Plus — No one Central Asia’s state is now properly stable, the head of the Central Asia and Kazakhstan department within Russia’s CIS Institute, Andrey Rogozin, said in an interview with Voice of America’s Russian Service on March 23.
Noting that the Central Asian countries seriously differ from each other, Rogozin said that Tajikistan’s authorities looked quite consolidated and solid.
“However, the economic situation [in Tajikistan] is getting worse year after year, and therefore, social tension is rising,” said Russian researcher, “Besides, major part of regional elites are dissatisfied with the fact that relatives of incumbent president took all significant businesses under their control.”
On the other hand, such a situation was reported [in Tajikistan] five years ago as well, and therefore, the probability that nothing will change in other five years is high, the Russian expert said.
According to him, two leading Central Asian states – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – are another matter.
“At first sight, everything seems to be calm,” said Rogozin, “For example, Kazakhstan’s elite has been consolidated around President Nazarabyaev and few people question his authority as national leader and all-elite arbiter. However, the years are rolling by and person is getting older and he feels that it is becoming more and more difficult for him to play this role that is to solve the main issues of power and business remaining above the engagement. In other words, the leader is getting older while young generation is gradually maturing and beginning formulating its view of how to manage the country.”
