Tajik flour producers have given eight reasons behind surging flour prices in Tajikistan.
Over the past seven years, flour prices have doubled in Dushanbe – an average price for a 50-kilogram sack of the 1st grade wheat flour at Dushanbe’s bazaars rose from 160.00 somonis in 2015 to 320.00 somonis this year, with similar price rises in other parts of the country.
Domestic flour producers say they have nothing to do with the price hike.
Representatives of companies supplying wheat flour to Tajikistan say there are eight main reasons behind surging flour prices in the country:
1. Wheat is getting more expensive all over the world. According to domestic flour producers, a wholesale price of one kilogram of wheat in the world market is 4.00 somonis and in Kazakhstan, which provides the bulk of Tajikistan’s wheat flour imports, is about 3.40 somonis. Wheat prices in Kazakhstan have risen 1,500 tenge over the past week, reaching 119,400 tenge (equivalent to US$269.19).
2. Fertilizers are in short supply.
3. The harvest is getting smaller. Experts call the decline in yields, decrease in grain production and new round of food inflation in 2022 an obvious consequence of this situation. Kazakhstan has introduced two-month wheat and wheat flour quotas for period until June 15.
4. Traders raise prices, which is bad for everyone. Kazakh media reports say traders from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan buy wheat from all grain elevators in the country and artificially inflate prices.
5. Shipping costs have increased. Over the first three months of this year, fuels (gasoline, diesel fuel and liquefied natural gas) have risen on average 1.7 times in prices that has led to increase in prices of basic food products in the country, including flour.
6. Two-month wheat and wheat flour export quotas introduced by Kazakhstan from the period from April 15 to June 15. The Government of Kazakhstan has decided to limit wheat exports to 1 million tons from April 15 to June 15. The same decision has been made on wheat flour exports. The wheat flour exports have been limited to 300,000 tons.
7. Consequences of the so-called “special military operation” launched by Russian in Ukraine on February 24 as Russia is the world's biggest exporter of wheat and Ukraine was the world's fourth-largest grain exporter in the 2020/21.
8. Currency exchange rate fluctuation and volatility of currency market in Tajikistan.
