DUSHANBE, October 4, 2010, Asia-Plus — Ismoil Talbakov, member of the Majlisi Namoyandagon (Tajikistan’s lower chamber of parliament) Committee on Economics, Budget, Finance and Taxes, considers that the year-end inflation may reach 9-11 percent.
He noted that the national budget projected the year-end inflation to stand at 7 percent. According to him, one of factors that contributed to rise in consumer prices in the country is Uzbekistan’s halting of Tajikistan-bound freight cars. “Settlement of the rail problem may improve pricing policy in our domestic market as these freights will participate in the domestic production,” MP noted.
Besides, increasing prices of imported grains and wheat flour also impact the inflation rate in the country. “Kazakhstan and Russian provide the bulk of Tajikistan’s grain and flour imports and rise in prices of grains and flour in these countries will affect the inflation rate in Tajikistan,” Talbakov said.
He also added that gasoline price hike had led to increase in prices of basic food products in Tajikistan.
“However, 9-11 percent inflation for 2010 will not have serious impact on the country’s economy,” the parliamentarian said.
We will recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team head, Mr. Todd Schneider, told reporters in Dushanbe on September 24 that despite disruptions in rail traffic, real economic growth through the first eight months of 2010 was in n the range of 6 percent while inflation was at 5.6 percent. Reflecting the economic recovery in Russia and other countries, inward remittances have also rebounded, rising 28 percent during January-August 2010. “For the year as a whole, we project that the economy will expand by at least 5.5 percent in real terms. Year-end inflation may reach as much as 9 percent, however, due in part to higher international prices for wheat and grains,” Mr. Schneider said. He noted that the outlook for 2011 was optimistic. “Our current projection is for GDP growth of at least 5 percent—based on relatively conservative assumptions. And barring new external shocks, we expect inflation to decline to about 7 percent.”
