Dushanbe. June 15. “Asia-Plus” — The way it looks today shows that the so-called temporary government is unable to settle the situation since, as I see it, the conflict is now escalating. That means that external assistance is required. And only Russia is able to provide such assistance, editor of the “Russia in global policy” journal Fedor Lukyanov told in his interview with Asia-Plus.
“The rest global community keeps surprising silence, shows no reaction and, what is more surprising, Washington says absolutely nothing after three days of mass disorders. That’s why the entire responsibility goes to Russia. There is another concrete reason for that. Many expatriate Kyrgyz citizens and Uzbeks live and work in Moscow and if massacre starts in Osh it can find its continuation in Moscow. Secondly, if Russia is trying to play the leading role at the post-Soviet space, it should interfere just like France does when they talks about former French colonies in Africa,” expert has said.
He says CSTO is unable to tackle the situation. “Unfortunately, unlike NATO, which has a well-established structure of mutual relations, CSTO is unable to act as a normal military and political organization. We can not expect that CSTO will play peacekeeping role since, on the one hand, heads of CSTO member states clearly understand that there is a need to undertake efforts to stop current disorders, but, on the other hand, they are afraid to make a precedent of involvement into internal affairs. In general, if situation deteriorates, Russia will have to interfere using military forces,” he said.
Editor-in-chief of the Russian edition is confident that internal forces are involved in the current situation. “Of course, they may not be directly linked with Kurmanbek Bakiev, but they have definite links to his relatives or followers since such unfavorable situation in the country occurred long ago and it’s quite easy to use provocations to stir such disorders. I thing drug barons may also be involved there, especially those groups which have strong links with drug trafficking from Afghanistan since they have funds and opportunities,” he said.
He believes that the worst variant of consequences may be disappearance of Kyrgyzstan as a common state and this will directly affect Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Less dramatic forecast says that temporary government will finally stop this wave of disorders, but Kyrgyzstan’s perspectives remain obscure.
“Additionally, in this situation the government will have to conduct elections and we can only imagine what dilemma they will face. It is impossible to foreseen the consequences of transparent elections, while correction of the election process may bring unpredictable results. Current priority is to stop inter-ethnic violence and try to understand how to rehabilitate Kyrgyzstan’s political system,” he concluded.
