According to the latest forecast from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Tajikistan’s economic growth is expected to remain high in 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by growth in the industry and services sectors. Increasing industrial competitiveness, leading to higher added value, will contribute to long-term economic growth and job creation.
According to the ADB’s economic report “Asian Development Outlook” published today for April 2026, Tajikistan’s gross domestic product is projected to grow by 7.3% in 2026 and by 6.8% in 2027 after an 8.4% growth in 2025.
Inflation is expected to be 4.0% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027 amid increased consumer lending and remittances, wage growth in the public sector, supply chain disruptions, and adjustments in utility tariffs. In the face of ongoing uncertainty in the region, forecasts may be revised.
“Tajikistan’s high economic growth creates opportunities for accelerated job creation,” noted ADB’s Country Director in Tajikistan, Ko Sakamoto. “By developing competitive and high-income industries, from food and textile production to mineral products manufacturing, the country can translate economic growth into more quality jobs, which is a key priority of our Country Partnership Strategy with Tajikistan.”
In recent years, industrial production in Tajikistan has shown steady growth. However, the country’s economy is still characterized by a narrow production base. Exports mainly consist of unprocessed raw materials and low to medium technology products, while industrial goods and products with high added value account for less than 10% of the total volume of goods exported.
In this context, the “Asian Development Outlook” recommends that Tajikistan implement a comprehensive industrial development program based on an ecosystem approach. Such a coordinated approach should go beyond individual sectors and address constraints across a broad business ecosystem, including infrastructure, the availability of skilled labor, access to finance, and the overall business environment.
ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth in the Asia-Pacific region. Working with its countries and partners to jointly address complex development challenges, ADB uses innovative financial instruments and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and protect our planet. Founded in 1966, ADB is owned by 69 countries, 50 of which are in the region.
