DUSHANBE, May 21, 2009, Asia-Plus — Some local experts expect the fall in the rate of the Tajik national currency, the somoni, will last till the end of summer. According to them, an official exchange rate of the somoni against the U.S. dollar may drop to 5.00:1.00 by late August.
According to the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), the somoni fell 2.7 percent against the dollar on May 20, from 4.1918:1.0 on May 19 to 4.3103:1.00 on May 20. The exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar dropped from 4.3103:1.00 on May 20 to 4.33:1.00 on May 21 (1.0 percent fall).
“The fall in the exchange rate of the somoni is a natural occurrence under conditions of the global financial crisis, especially in spring,” Firouz Saidov, the head of the department for studying social sphere and labor market within the Center for Strategic Studies, said in an interview with Asia-Plus today.
According to him, the main reasons for sharp national currency devaluation are decrease in labor migrants’ remittances, the fall in the international prices of Tajikistan’s major commodities – cotton and aluminum – and in demand for them, as well as sharp devaluation of currencies of Tajikistan’s main trading partners (Russia and Kazakhstan).
The expert from the Tajik think tank also noted that negative impact of the currency devaluation on the country’s economy was already felt: exports are decreasing following shortage of dollars and prices of consumer goods are rising in domestic market.
He further added that the fall in the exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar from January to July was a natural annual occurrence. “Sowing campaign is launched during the period and the country’s currency reserves usually come to an end and demand for foreign currency increases correspondingly, leading to devaluation of the national currency,” Saidov said.
He is sure that the fall in the rate of the national currency will last till late August and the exchange rate of the somoni against the dollar will be 5.00:1.00 by the end of August. However, the somoni exchange rate may begin increasing starting from September, Saidov noted.
