DUSHANBE, April 6, 2012, Asia-Plus — A new issue of The CIS Macromonitor, published by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)’s Analytic Unit, notes that the CIS economies managed to improve their growth rates.
The issue analyses the performance of all the CIS economies in 2011 and provides forecasts for 2012.
According to the report, the economic growth rates in the CIS developed economies rose from 4.4 percent in 2010 to 4.6 percent in 20111.
The EDB experts note that increase in money remittances from countries exporting raw materials has stimulated economic growth in manpower exporters.
The report says the inflation pressure has substantially decreased in the region. The lowest inflation rates were reported in Armenia and Ukraine – 4.7 and 4.6 percent respectively.
Revival of the CIS economies has had a wholesome effect on fiscal indicators of the countries of the region. Thus, a level of external debt to gross domestic product (GDP) in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine fell by 6 percent.
Last year, the weighted average growth in agriculture stood at 20 percent due to good harvests.
The EDB experts note that oil prices are the determining factor of development of the CIS economies. The report notes that if the oil prices remain at the current high level (US115 per barrel), the regions economics will rise on average 4.9 percent in 2012 and will increase to 5.2 percent in 2013. But if the oil prices fall to US$90 per barrel the CIS economies’ growth will fall to 3.2 and 3.9 percent respectively.
The report notes that foreign exerts expect the rate of growth of Tajikistan’s GDP to decrease to 6.0 percent and inflation to stand at 8.0 percent. Meanwhile, in the case of continuation of the practice of stimulating the public sector under the conditions of aggravation of the external conjuncture inflation in Tajikistan may increase to more than 10 percent by the end of 2012.
The CIS Macromonitor states that the weighted average consensus forecast of GDP growth in the CIS for 2012 is 4.6%. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to demonstrate the highest rates of 8.4% and 7.4% respectively, while Belarus and Russia will produce lower figures of 3% and 4.1% respectively.
CIS Macromonitor is a quarterly macroeconomic publication by the Analytic Unit of the Eurasian Development Bank. On a regular basis, it reviews and discusses tendencies and problems, also providing economic development forecasts for the CIS countries. While focusing in first place on the economic issues of the EDB member countries, CIS Macromonitor also presents analytic boxes dedicated to certain relevant issues of macroeconomic situation in the region. In particular, in 2011 the readers were presented the reports about macroeconomic interrelations between the CIS economies; international flow of capital in the CIS countries; food supply security in the Central Asia; Kazakhstan pension system; monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia; and effect of oil prices on the CIS economies.
