Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are the leaders among CIS states in expected economic growth in the global financial crisis, reports the analytical report of the Internatinal Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the document, the CIS countires are expected to experience largest negative change in economy, though financial turmoil, sharp access restriction to external financing, decreasing demands for goods services and energy price decrease.
IMF estimated that only Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan remain prospects for economic growth. Economic growth in Turkmenistan for 2009-2010 is estimated to 6.9% and 7%, and in Azerbaijan to 2.5% и 12.3%.
Economy of Uzbekistan to grow by 7% in 2009 and 2010. Followed by Tajikistan with 2% and 3%, Georgia with 1% and 3%, Kyrgyzstan with 0.95 and 2.9%. Experts argue that some of these estimates obviously politicized.
Inflation rate expected to reach 16.8% in Ukraine, over 12% in Belorus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, 11.9% in Tajikistn, 10% in Turkmenistan, 9.5% in Kazakhstan.
“Key challenge for political leadership of the CIS countries is to find the right balance between the use of macroeconomic policy to mitigate the negative impact of capital outflows to economic activity and the maintenance of public trust to local currencies.”
