DUSHANBE, May 12, 2014, Asia-Plus — Weather conditions in various countries and political tensions in the Black Sea region have made food markets more volatile, FAO reports in the new
Food Outlook
.
In its first major forecast for 2014, FAO puts cereal production at 2,458 million tons (including milled rice), down some 2.4 percent from the 2013 record, though global output is still expected to be the second largest ever.
The decline is likely to be more pronounced for coarse grains. Still, inventory levels remain fairly good. Analysts say there is no cause for concern at this early stage before the main 2014/2015 seasons get underway — assuming trade flows are not negatively affected by tensions in the Black Sea region.
Overall, world cereal stocks are expected to remain at relatively comfortable levels, according to the report, a biannual publication which provides information on the short-term market situation and outlook for major food stuffs. Lower pricing and El Nino weather conditions may keep world rice production lower in 2014, especially in Asia. In Thailand, a softening of producer prices could be the main factor leading to a contraction in rice planting and production.
While production may be lower, international trade could expand to record levels in 2014, sustained by ample supplies in exporting countries and increased purchases by traditional importers like Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines.
The report says the 2014 global food import bill could stabilize at $1.29 trillion but animal product bills are set to increase, sustained by rising trade volumes and prices.
Meat and milk production are both expected to grow in 2014. World meat production is expected to grow modestly to 311.8 million tons, an increase of 1.1 percent over 2013, reflecting growth in the developing countries, which are mainly behind the rising global demand.
Milk trade is forecast to rise 1.8 percent, reaching 69 million tonnes, and driven primarily by increasing demand from Asia.
Sugar production was reportedly showing marginal declines but trade is expected to be higher amid increased demand from importing countries.
FAO also issued its monthly
Food Price Index
, which averaged 209.3 points in April 2014, down 3.5 points, or 1.6 percent, from March, and 7.6 points, or 3.5 percent, below April 2013. Last month”s decline was mostly caused by a sharp drop in dairy prices, although sugar and vegetable oil also fell. By contrast, cereals and meat prices were slightly firmer.
