China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seems to benefit only Central Asia’s richer countries, according to Eurasianet.
Central Asia shares a long border with China. Located between China and Western markets, the region has been key to the BRI vision since Xi Jinping unveiled it in Kazakhstan in 2013. China pitches the BRI as a quick road to infrastructure development, integration, and economic growth.
In 2010 China’s trade turnover with Central Asia stood at just over $21 billion, according to IMF data, with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan accounting for most of the total.
Total regional trade turnover with China peaked at $40.5 billion in 2013, fell to just over $19 billion by 2016, and reached $27.2 billion last year.
Eurasianet notes that China’s trade with Central Asia appears only to be rising along with the BRI, but not for everyone. China’s BRI seems to benefit only Central Asia’s richer countries.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – the smallest, poorest and most Beijing-dependent economies in Central Asia – have seen their exports to China fall since 2010. Combined, the two reportedly exported $475 million of goods to China in 2010; by 2018 these were valued at $337 million. Over the same period, imports from China rose by $1.4 billion (by comparison, Turkmenistan’s exports to China increased by $6.8 billion in the same period).
The BRI effect has been one-sided for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, despite China’s considerable market size and proximity.
Eurasianet says that there is nothing inherently wrong in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan importing more from China than they sell. But the fact that trade is so one-sided should concern Bishkek and Dushanbe. Last year, Tajikistan paid a Chinese company building a power plant with a gold mine; a few years earlier it swapped Beijing some land for debt. With widening trade imbalances, such deals could be a sign of trade ties to come.
