Over the first three months of this year, 359 million U.S. dollars (USD) have been sent by physical entities through money transfer system to Tajikistan from Russia, which was 22.3 percent fewer than in the same period last year, according to Russia’s central bank.
In January-March last year, 462 million USD were reportedly sent through money transfer system to Tajikistan from Russia.
In Uzbekistan, which topped CIS nations in terms of remittance flows sent from Russia through money transfer systems in the first quarter of this year, remittances flows from Russia have reportedly declined 7.2 percent – from 818 million USD in January-March 2019 to 759 million in January-March this year.
In Kyrgyzstan, remittances flows from Russia have reportedly declined 20.7 percent – from 453 million USD in January-March 2019 to 359 million in January-March this year.
The World Bank in April this year predicted sharpest decline of remittances in recent history. According to the World Bank, global remittances are projected to decline sharply by about 20 percent in 2020 due to the economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and shutdown. The projected fall is largely due to a fall in the wages and employment of migrant workers, who tend to be more vulnerable to loss of employment and wages during an economic crisis in a host country. Remittances to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to fall by 19.7 percent to $445 billion, representing a loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households, the World Bank noted.
In 2021, the World Bank estimates that remittances to LMICs will recover and rise by 5.6 percent to $470 billion. The outlook for remittance remains as uncertain as the impact of COVID-19 on the outlook for global growth and on the measures to restrain the spread of the disease. In the past, remittances have been counter-cyclical, where workers send more money home in times of crisis and hardship back home. This time, however, the pandemic has affected all countries, creating additional uncertainties.
Recall, US$2.576 billion were sent through money transfer system to Tajikistan from Russia last year, which was 23 million U.S. dollars more than in 2018. Last year, remittances from Tajik citizens sent through money transfer system to the country from Russia were reportedly equivalent to nearly 33 percent of all economic output (as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP).
In 2018, US$2.553 billion were sent through money transfer system to Tajikistan from Russia, which was 17 million U.S. dollars more than in 2017. In 2018, remittances from Tajik citizens sent through money transfer system to the country from Russia were reportedly equivalent to 36 percent of all economic output (as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP).
