Analysts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expect a slowdown in economic growth in Tajikistan by 1%. Real growth of the republic's economy in 2021 is projected at 3%.
According to a press release released by the EBRD – «These indicators may turn out to be overly optimistic if the continuation of the pandemic slows down the recovery of the economies of the country's key trading partners – Russia and China».
Representatives of the international financial institution note that the first cases of Covid-19 were registered in Tajikistan only at the end of April of this year, and containment measures were introduced in the republic later than most of its neighbors in the region.
«The economy was mainly affected by the disruption of transport links with key trading partners and limited access to the Russian labor market», – stressed in the message.
It is noted that in the first half of 2020, remittances from Russia decreased by about 15% year on year, which negatively affected consumption, import volumes and tax revenues.
«Despite strong external pressure, Tajikistan's economy grew 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2020», – the release says.
EBRD economists stress that growth at this level was driven by strong performance in industry (mainly reflecting a sharp increase in gold exports) and agriculture.
