The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has revised its economic growth forecast for Tajikistan up to 7.6% for the current year, says the EFSD Regional Economic Outlook presented on July 9. In its spring Macroeconomic Outlook, the EFSD had projected a growth rate of 7.2% for Tajikistan's economy.
Reasons for the revised forecast
The revised growth rate reflects a higher-than-expected GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2024, an improved economic growth forecast for Russia, increased investment activity, and rising gold prices, the EFSD analysts noted.
Medium-term outlook
Despite the upward revision, the EFSD expects a slight slowdown in real GDP growth to 7.0-7.3% in 2024-2026. This anticipated deceleration is attributed to a projected decline in remittance growth, which in turn is expected to slow consumer demand.
2023 performance and government expectations
Official data shows that Tajikistan's real GDP growth in 2023 was 8.3%. The Tajik government expects growth of at least 8.0% by the end of 2024. However, EFSD specialists forecast a growth rate of 5.3% this year, influenced by rising prices for imported energy resources, with growth stabilizing around 6% in 2025-2026.
Inflation forecast
The EFSD has revised its inflation forecast downward by 0.3 percentage points due to a lower-than-expected external inflationary environment. In the medium term, inflation is expected to remain within the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT)'s target range of 6±2%. This forecast is supported by balanced growth in monetary aggregates and stable prices for key raw materials and imported food products in 2025-2026.
Current inflation rates
According to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, inflation from January to May this year was only 1.8%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period in 2023. Last year's price and tariff increases were officially reported at 3.8%, the lowest level in the republic's history since gaining independence.
The Macroeconomic Outlook is a comprehensive publication that focuses on economic developments in the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)’s member countries. It provides projections for key medium-term macroeconomic indicators, including economic growth, inflation, as well as interest and exchange rates. These projections are generated using the Bank’s integrated model system.
The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) is a regional financial mechanism with a volume of more than US$9 billion, which was established in 2009 by EBD’s member nations Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. The Fund was established to overcome the negative consequences of the crisis, ensure long-term sustainability and promote the integration of the economies of the Fund's member nations.
