China has emerged as Tajikistan’s major trading partner, surpassing Russia for the first time in over 25 years, according to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan.
China is now a major trading partner and the largest source of investment for Tajikistan.
According to data from the Agency for Statistics, a two-way trade between Tajikistan and China in January-May this year has valued at US$964 million—a nearly 30% increase compared to the same period last year. This consisted of Tajikistan’s exports to China estimated at more than US$177 million and Tajikistan’s imports from China worth approximately US$787 million.
Meanwhile, the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) reports that in May this year alone, Tajikistan exported US$49.6 million and imported US$366 million from China, resulting in a negative trade balance of US$316 million.
In May 2025, the top exports of Tajikistan to China were precious metal ore — US$25.7 million, lead ore — US$19.3 million, and refined copper — US$2.67 million.
In May 2025, the year-on-year growth in Tajikistan’s exports to China was reportedly driven mainly by exports of lead ore — US$19.3M or 100%, precious metal ore – US$5.8 million or 28.4%, and refined copper – US$2.67 million or 100%.
In May 2025, the main imports of Tajikistan from China were motor vehicles: parts and accessories (8701 to 8705 — US$17.8 million, cars – US$13.9 million, and air conditioners – US$13.8 million.
In May 2025, the year-on-year growth in Tajikistan’s imports from China was mainly attributed to imports of air conditioners – US$8.2 million or 145%, large construction vehicles – US$5.9 million or 121 percent, and stone processing machines – US$5.81 million or 127 percent.
Between May 2024 and May 2025 Tajikistan’s exports to China reportedly increased US$27.3 million (122%) from US$22.3 million to US$49.6M, while imports increased by US$34.7 million (10.5%) from US$331 million to US$366 million.
According to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan, China’s share in Tajikistan’s total foreign trade turnover hit 24.8% over the first five months of this year, overtaking Russia’s share of 23.2%. This marks a historic shift in Tajikistan’s trade dynamics, as Russia had maintained the top position since the late 1990s.
During the same five-month period, the bilateral trade between Tajikistan and Russia reportedly totaled about US$900 million. Tajikistan exported roughly US$42 million worth of goods to Russia, while imports from Russia stood at US$858 million—representing a 9.3% growth year-on-year.
Historically, Uzbekistan was Tajikistan’s primary trade partner in the 1990s. In 1995, bilateral trade reached US$250 million—twice the volume of trade with all other CIS countries combined. However, relations cooled by the late 1990s, and trade dropped significantly, reaching just US$13 million by 2014.
Under the leadership of incumbent Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, relations between the two neighbors improved, leading to a trade rebound. Over the first five months of 2025 alone, Tajik-Uzbek trade reportedly stood at US$238 million.
China's economic influence in Tajikistan has also been growing steadily. It overtook Russia as the largest investor in 2017. As of the second quarter of this year, Chinese investments in Tajikistan totaled US$5.1 billion, more than double the US$2 billion invested by Russia.
China also remains Tajikistan’s largest creditor. As of early 2025, Tajikistan owed China around US$1 billion—roughly one-third of its total external debt.
