The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its short-term economic growth forecasts for Tajikistan, predicting a slight slowdown over the next two years. This was revealed in the latest edition of the bank’s flagship publication, the Asian Development Outlook.
According to ADB economists, Tajikistan’s economy is projected to grow by 7.4% in 2025, before easing to 6.8% in 2026 — figures unchanged from the April outlook. Despite the expected slowdown, these growth rates remain among the highest in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
In comparison, Kyrgyzstan is also expected to post robust growth — 8.3% in 2025 and 8.4% in 2026.
Official data shows that Tajikistan’s GDP expanded by 8.4% in 2024, and the pace remained steady in the first half of 2025 with 8.1% growth, only marginally down from 8.2% during the same period last year.
The industrial sector posted significant gains, growing 24.0% year-on-year. Key drivers included a 110.0% increase in metal ore production and an 8.0% rise in food manufacturing. However, textile output declined by 3.5%, while petroleum production dropped 1.7%.
The services sector expanded by 12.8%, fueled by impressive growth in several areas: financial intermediation surged by 80.2%, hospitality rose 21.1%, medical services by 16.5%, and transport by 13.3%.
Despite poor weather conditions and a locust infestation in the southern regions, agriculture rebounded strongly, registering 15.9% growth. Construction activity also improved, increasing 7.1%.
Private consumption continues to be a major growth engine, supported by a sharp rise in remittances and public sector wage hikes. Remittance inflows from Russia — a key economic lifeline — soared from $1.1 billion in Q1 2024 to $1.8 billion in the same period of 2025, despite tighter labor regulations for foreign workers.
Economists highlighted that the delayed impact of last year’s public sector pay raises, along with the latest increases in salaries, pensions, and stipends effective from September 1, 2025, helped boost consumer spending and contributed to growth in both bank lending and deposits.
The average monthly wage in Tajikistan rose by 24.2% year-on-year, reaching $268.
"While medium-term risks remain, the strong surge in remittances and solid performance in the first half of this year support the decision to maintain earlier growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026," ADB analysts concluded.
