China’s rapid shift toward renewable energy sources (RESs) poses a threat to traditional natural gas producers like Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. However, Uzbekistan, which is also quickly expanding its renewable energy sector, may stand to benefit, Eurasianet reports, citing a report by BloombergNEF titled "Supply Chains in the Energy Transition Era."
China leads the world in clean energy production, controlling over 70% of global capacity in all categories of clean energy generation, excluding hydrogen electrolyzers. In 2024, 76% of global investments in the renewable energy sector were directed to Chinese factories producing solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines.
Furthermore, China has seen explosive growth in clean energy generation, particularly from solar power plants. Energy consumption in China is rising, with around 80% of this growth being covered by renewable energy.
“By 2030, the total installed clean energy generation capacity is expected to reach 2,461 GW, double the 2022 figure, with solar power capacity tripling,” the Ember analytical center, which specializes in renewable energy transition issues, reports.
“As many developed economies prioritize protectionism through tariffs, developing markets are capturing a growing share of supply from mainland China,” the BloombergNEF study concludes.
However, fossil fuels still account for approximately 62% of China’s energy consumption. This share is expected to decrease in the coming years due to the slowdown of China’s economy, growth in renewable energy production, and President Xi Jinping’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, according to Eurasianet.
These shifts in China’s energy policy have likely influenced recent decisions regarding Russia and Central Asia. China, long considered the world’s largest driver of gas demand, is now shifting its priorities toward RESs. This shift likely explains the recent rejection of the Russian mega-project to build a gas pipeline to China through Kazakhstan, as well as Beijing’s reluctance to approve the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline.
