In 2025, the price of gold bars issued by the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) surged by a record 39.03%, driven by the global rise in gold prices. However, in the first five days of 2026, gold prices have continued to rise at an even faster pace — an average of 3%. This seems to be linked to the accelerated rise in global precious metal prices, influenced by developments in Venezuela.

As it had been reported earlier, a record increase of 43% was reported in 2020 during the pandemic, but the next two years saw slight decreases of 4.1% in 2021 and 9.0% in 2022. In 2023, the price rose by 21.5%, and in 2024 by 25.8%.

According to NBT, the price of a 5-gram gold bar increased by 1,832.19 somonis over the past year, reaching 6,610.42 somonis as of January 1, 2026.

Meanwhile, the cost of a 100-gram bar rose by 36,737.98 somonis (39.47%), with price of 129,812.90 somonis on the same date.

Tajikistan’s central bank also offers measured gold bars weighing 10, 20, and 50 grams.

As of January 1, 2026, the selling prices for these gold bars reached 13,506.42, 26,879.42 and 66,981.47, respectively.

The 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100 gram gold bars produced by the National Bank of Tajikistan were released into free circulation in June 2017.  The gold bars are sold by the NBT Department of Monetary Circulation and Cash Operations.

The then-head of the NBT Jamshed Nourmahmadzoda told reporters in Dushanbe on February 5, 2020 that gold bars with a total weight of 100 kilograms are waiting for their customers in storage of Tajik central bank.

“By president’s order we have produced gold bars with a total weight of 100 kilograms and we are gradually selling them,” Nourmahmadzoda noted.

According to him, citizens of the country can buy the NBT-produced bars using their passports.  “No other documents are required,” Nourmahmadzoda said.

Each citizen of Tajikistan can buy gold bars totally weighing one kilogram per year.

Investor Activity in Gold

Several factors contributed to this increase: geopolitical tensions, the weakening of the U.S. dollar, and a growing demand for gold.

Investor interest has also been strong in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with approximately $77 billion invested in gold since the beginning of 2025, and gold reserves increased by more than 700 tons by the end of November. This highlights the strengthening of gold as one of the key "safe-haven" assets in times of uncertainty.

As of January 5, 2026, the price of gold on the LBM (London Gold Fixing) market stood at $4,436.70 per troy ounce (31.1 grams). At the beginning of 2025, the price was $2,646.30, marking a 67.7% increase over the year.

Outlook for 2026

According to analyst Gayane Zamaliyeva, gold is likely to retain its status as one of the key defensive assets in 2026. However, she predicts more moderate and uneven dynamics compared to the rally in the second half of 2025: "The dynamics will be more restrained and uneven," she said.

Yelena Kozukhova, an analyst at VELES Capital, believes that the increasingly tense global situation will support gold prices in 2026. "The ongoing Ukrainian conflict, the escalation of relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, potential Israeli strikes on Iran, and tensions in Asia remain key factors," she adds.

Nikolai Dudchenko from Finam notes that when the dollar falls, prices for safe-haven assets like gold tend to rise. He predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2026, which will weaken the dollar and support gold and other commodities.

Gold as a diversification tool

Dudchenko emphasizes that gold remains one of the best tools for diversifying investment portfolios, due to its lack of default risk and its ability to hedge against inflation. "This is especially relevant in light of recent economic decisions, such as the passage of the 'Big Beautiful Bill' in the U.S., which may significantly increase the U.S. budget deficit," he said.

Ludmila Rokotyanskaya, an expert from BCS Mir Investments, points to the holiday season in the U.S., India, and China at the beginning of 2026, when demand for gold from the jewelry industry will increase, further driving up its price. "Additionally, annual gold supply is limited and usually cannot keep up with the sharp rise in demand," she notes.

The United States’ bold move to detain Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and signal a takeover of the country’s oil sector has triggered sharp condemnation from Russia and China — but drawn a muted response from Central Asia. As the geopolitical fallout unfolds, oil markets and energy exporters in the region are bracing for what could become a major shake-up. As of January 5, none of the Central Asian republics had issued an official statement regarding Maduro’s capture or Washington’s apparent intent to restore and dominate Venezuela’s oil industry.

Eurasianet says regional governments appear to be treading carefully, especially in light of increased U.S. diplomatic outreach. President Donald Trump has extended invitations to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to attend the 2026 G20 summit — making open criticism of U.S. actions politically unwise.

"The priority is to maintain stability and caution, observing events from the sidelines," said regional analyst Marat Shibutov, quoted by Kazakh outlet Arasha.kz. While speaking specifically about Kazakhstan, his remarks reflect a broader sentiment across the region.

In contrast, Russia and China reacted vociferously. The Russian Foreign Ministry blasted Washington’s “aggressive actions” and accused the U.S. of violating Venezuelan sovereignty. China’s Foreign Ministry labeled the U.S. operation a “hegemonic act” and a “serious breach of international law.” Foreign Minister Wang Yi later accused the U.S. of playing “global judge.”

While diplomacy plays out on the surface, concerns are mounting over the broader implications for global energy markets — especially for Russia and oil-exporting states in Central Asia.

Kazakhstan, the region’s top oil producer, is reportedly watching developments closely. Analysts say the short-term impact on Kazakh oil exports and revenues will likely be minimal, but the long-term risks are real.

Venezuela holds up to 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. While production once peaked at 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s, output has since collapsed to under 1 million bpd due to years of neglect and infrastructure decay. President Trump has pledged to revitalize Venezuela’s oil sector through U.S. energy firms, though no concrete plan has been unveiled.

Kazakh analysts remain skeptical about any rapid resurgence. “The main issue with Venezuelan oil is its quality — it’s thick, difficult to extract, and costly,” said Askar Ismailov of the Global Gas Centre in Geneva, speaking to Forbes.kz. “A fast ramp-up is almost physically impossible.”

Ismailov added that while the U.S. may seek to expand market share, it is unlikely to flood markets at a loss, meaning oil prices could remain relatively stable in the short term.

Others, like Kazakh economist Baurzhan Shurmanov, reportedly warn of political uncertainty affecting supply dynamics. If Venezuela eventually returns to producing 3–3.5 million bpd, “it could shift the balance of power in global energy markets,” he told Arbat.Media.

China and Cuba, currently major recipients of Venezuelan oil, could face immediate disruptions. China imported around 470,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil in 2025, while Cuba relies on Caracas for 40% of its energy imports. A potential cutoff would be especially devastating for Cuba, echoing the “special period” economic crisis of the 1990s.

Kazakh outlet Zakon.kz called the U.S. operation “the most significant geopolitical upheaval of the decade,” adding that if Venezuelan production increases by 1.5 million bpd, it could act as a “powerful brake on global oil prices,” potentially pushing them down to $50–$55 per barrel.

According to Eurasianet, that scenario would spell trouble for Russia — and to a lesser extent, Kazakhstan. Shurmanov noted that sustained low prices could reduce Kazakhstan’s standing as a key supplier and erode state revenue.

For Russia, the stakes are existential. Sanctioned oligarch Oleg Deripaska reportedly warned that U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil sector could be a “calamitous development” for President Vladimir Putin, whose regime depends on energy revenues to fund both domestic governance and the war in Ukraine.

“A $50-per-barrel price could seriously undermine the Russian budget and shake the Putinist system,” Deripaska wrote on Telegram. He warned that the Kremlin’s model of state capitalism — reliant on grand projects and limited private sector involvement — is unsustainable in the face of reduced income.

Deripaska also noted that private businesses in Russia are being squeezed to cover budget gaps, and will likely bear the brunt of taxation in the coming year, further suppressing economic growth and potentially sparking unrest among the financial elite.