DUSHANBE, August 1, 2012, Asia-Plus — In the period under study, Tajikistan was the only CA country that registered a decline in exports measured at constant exchange rate and prices; in 2010, exports were about 45% less than in 2000, “Trends and Patterns in Foreign Trade of Central Asian Countries” by Roman Mogilevskii, Senior Research Fellow/Project Coordinator, the University of Central Asia (UCA)’s Institute for Public Policy and Administration, notes.
By contrast, imports reportedly grew by 17%. As a result, trade turnover changed very little, staying at the level of 30% of GDP. The trade deficit is very large; since 2008 it exceeds 10% of GDP. It should be noted that these data do not take into account that for the last few years: (i) part of aluminum exports are shown in statistics as exports of services, not goods (see Section 3.3); and (ii) informal trade flows in Tajikistan, similar to Kyrgyzstan, have become very important.
The main export commodity of Tajikistan is unwrought aluminum. From 2000 to 2010, its share in total exports increased from 51% to 62%. The destinations of aluminum exports have completely changed, from the EU and Russia in 2000, to China and Turkey in 2010, which explains the major changes in the share of all these countries/country groups in the geographic structure of exports from Tajikistan.
The second largest export commodity is cotton fiber. If measured at the 2010 exchange rate and prices, exports of cotton fiber remained constant from 2000 to 2010. However, due to a general contraction of exports, the share of this commodity in total exports increased from 11% to 17%. The geography of cotton sales has also changed from Switzerland, Latvia and Slovakia to Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, with Russia maintaining its place as one of the largest buyers.
Recently, Tajikistan has also increased its exports of fruits and vegetables, which go primarily to Russia. Electricity exports to Uzbekistan have now almost disappeared. Due to these changes, the composition of key export markets in 2010 (China, Turkey, and Russia) was very different from that in 2000 (EU, Russia, and Uzbekistan).
Unlike other CA countries, there were quite a few changes in the structure of imports from 2000 to 2010 in Tajikistan. First, the share of alumina fell dramatically because of the low growth rate of aluminum exports, for which alumina is a raw material. Second, there was a substantial decline in the imports of electricity from Uzbekistan. Third, imports of machinery, metals, timber and oil products increased considerably, reflecting the increase in public and private investments in the country in such areas as road rehabilitation, hydropower plant construction and housing construction. Imported capital goods and intermediate products for these investment activities came primarily from Russia, China and Iran, which explains the increase in these countries” shares in total imports. Uzbekistan is no longer a main trade partner of Tajikistan, for either exports or imports.
