DUSHANBE, September 5, 2012, Asia-Plus — Oxfam’s new report, ‘Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices’, raises the issue for the first time of how extreme weather events e.g. droughts and floods, could drive up future food prices, press release issued by Oxfam on September 5 said, noting that the research seeks push the limits of the research and assess the impact of extreme weather scenarios on food prices in 2030.
Current research warns that within two decades the world’s food security situation could be even more vulnerable to the droughts that already occur today in the USA. It is also expected that there will be an increased dependence on US exports of wheat and maize, the cost of which is predicted to rise and further exacerbated by the impact of climate change which will increase the likelihood of extreme droughts.
According to the research findings, a conservative estimate of the impact of another drought in the USA in 2030, is that it could raise the price of maize by as much as 140% above the average price of food in 2030. It is already estimated that maize prices will be double today’s prices.
Drought and flooding in Southern Africa could increase the consumer price of maize and other coarse grains by as much as 120%. Price spikes of this magnitude today would mean the cost of a 25-kilogram bag of corn meal – a staple food for poor families in Africa that can provide sustenance for up to two weeks – would rocket from around US$18 to US$40.
A nationwide drought in India and extensive flooding across South East Asia could see the world market price of rice increase by 22%. This could result in domestic spikes of up to 43% on top of long term price rises for rice importing countries of such as Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country.
The research also warns that climate shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa are likely to have an increasingly dramatic impact in 2030. 95% of grains such as maize, millet and sorghum that are consumed in sub-Saharan Africa could actually come from the region itself.
The research was commissioned by Oxfam and carried out by Dirk Willenbockel of the Institute of Development Studies.
Madina Aliberdiyeva, a spokesperson from the international agency Oxfam in Tajikistan, notes that the new research shows that the full impact of climate change on future food prices is being underestimated. In response, Oxfam is calling for a significant increase in investment in small scale agriculture in Tajikistan to address concerns over national food security.
