Fitch Ratings notes that reports of Tajik government crack-down in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) highlights the lingering threat of civil unrest to the country's political stability. Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan reportedly increases the potential for unrest to turn violent, given the close proximity of militant groups in Afghanistan. At the same time, the agency notes that with a large presence of Russian troops and increased security cooperation with China, risks of a coup or prolonged insurgency are relatively low.
Fitch Ratings maintains its short-term political risk score of 49.0 out of 100, although reports of clashes would lead to a downward revision.
Tajikistan will continue to be at risk of civil unrest given the instability of its Pamir region, GBAO. Fitch Rating notes that reports of a government crackdown in the region heighten risks of civil unrest within Tajikistan over the coming quarters. Tensions have reportedly lingered since government forces clashed with local militants in 2012, over unsuccessful attempts to arrest local leaders wanted as criminals.
On September 15, 2018, while visiting the region Tajik President Emomali Rahmon harshly criticized local security officials for what he described as a “state of lawlessness,” governed by “criminals.” This was followed by a threat by the President to increase security forces in the region. In the following weeks a number of senior local officials were replaced. Efforts to remove illegally owned weapons and crack-down on the drug trade that flows from neighboring Afghanistan are also underway. Given previous violence within the region and the increased presence of government security forces, risks of a repeated flare up of unrest are elevated, says the rating agency.
The region's border with Afghanistan reportedly adds to the risks of instability. The increased activity of Islamic State (IS) terror group and Taliban insurgents along the border inside Afghanistan could aggravate any unrest, according to Fitch Ratings.
Fears of unrest have reportedly long existed in Tajikistan, and military support of regional powers reduces the prospect of significant instability within the country. The support of Russia, which reportedly has around 7,000 troops stationed at its 201st Military Base in Dushanbe, remains a significant deterrent to insurgent forces. Similarly, Chinese investment interest in Tajikistan has increased in recent years, with over $U.S.1.0 billion in Chinese loans to Tajikistan, and Tajikistan is intended to form part of China's 'Belt And Road' Initiative. Given this stake in Tajikistan's stability, and Chinese wariness of instability across the border from its western Muslim-majority province, Xinjiang, Chinese military support would be likely. China already has a presence along the Afghan-Tajik border and is rumored to be building a base in Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor. As such, major security risks will be mitigated somewhat, given the interest in maintaining stability within the country from regional powers, the agency concludes.
Fitch Ratings Inc. is one of the “"Big Three credit rating agencies,” the other two being Moody's and Standard & Poor's. It is one of the three nationally recognized statistical rating organizations (NRSRO) designated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 1975. Fitch Ratings is headquartered in New York, US. Hearst owns 100 percent of the company following its acquisition of an additional 20 percent for $2.8 billion on April 12, 2018. Hearst had owned 80 percent of the company after increasing its ownership stake by 30 percent on December 12, 2014, in a transaction valued at $1.965 billion. Hearst's previous equity interest was 50 percent following expansions on an original acquisition in 2006.
