DUSHANBE, October 9, 2008, Asia-Plus — The world economy is decelerating quickly, buffeted by an extraordinary financial shock and by still-high energy and commodity prices, and many advanced economies are close to or moving into recession, the IMF says in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The October 2008 report said that growth in emerging economies is also weakening after years of strong growth, though it will still drive global growth.
According to the report, real GDP growth has been strong in most countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), underpinned by buoyant domestic demand that has been boosted by terms-of-trade gains in most countries in the region and expansionary macroeconomic policies. However, growth prospects are deteriorating as the region has been affected by the global financial turmoil, notably Kazakhstan and, more recently, Russia, which have been confronted by loss of confidence and a sharp turn in capital flows. Weakening demand from partner countries would add to the effects on growth of unsettled financial markets. High world prices for food and fuel have contributed significantly to inflation pressures across the region.
According to the report, in Tajikistan, real GDP growth in 2008 will be 4.1 percent, while earlier, the IMF experts expected real Tajikistan’s GDP growth for 2008 to stand at 8 percent. In 2009, Tajikistan’s GDP growth is expected to be 7 percent.
Among the CIS states, the highest GDP growth is reported in Azerbaijan – 18.6 percent for 2008 and 15.6 percent for 2009.
In Kazakhstan, growth is expected to remain relatively subdued as the excesses of the earlier credit boom unwind, although the still-buoyant oil sector should continue to partially offset the effects of the credit crunch – 5 percent for 2008 and 7 percent for 2008.
In Kyrgyzstan, real GDP growth is projected to slow from 7 percent this year to about 6.5 percent in 2009.
In Uzbekistan, real GDP growth is expected to slow from 8 percent in 2008 to 7.5 percent in 2009.
In Turkmenistan, GDP growth is projected to increase from 9.5 percent to 10 percent in 2009.
In Armenia, real GDP growth is projected to slow from 10 percent this year to 8 percent in 2009; in Belarus — from 7.1 percent in 2008 to 6.9 percent in 2009, Russia — from 6.8 percent in 2008 to 6.3 percent in 2009, and in Ukraine – from 5.6 percent in 2008 to 4.2 percent in 2009. In Moldova, real GDP growth is expected to increase from 7 percent in 2008 to 8 percent in 2009.
In the meantime, according to the CIS Interstate Committee for Statistics, real GDP growth in Tajikistan is expected to increase from 5-6 percent in 2008 to 7 percent in 2009.
According to Tajikistan’s State Committee for Statistics, GDP growth for January-August 2008 stood at 6.9 percent.
