Climatologists warn: 2026 could be among the hottest years on record. As reported by Euronews, the ongoing global warming and potential intensification of climate processes are cited as reasons.
The beginning of the current year has already been marked by unusually high temperatures: the first four months ranked among the four warmest on record.
March 2026 became the fourth warmest March on record. Last month’s average global surface temperature exceeded the pre-industrial level by 1.48°C.
This is evidenced by data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, according Anadolu Agency (AA).
According to the data, the average global surface temperature in March was 13.94°C.
This figure was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial period average (1850–1900) and 0.53°C above the March average for the period 1991–2020.
Thus, March 2026 ranked fourth among the warmest Marches globally.
The warmest March remains March 2024, with March 2025 in second place and March 2016 in third.
Climate experts predict that a powerful El Niño phenomenon may develop by the fall of this year. According to their calculations, there is approximately a 19% chance that 2026 will break all temperature records, becoming the hottest year on record.
Experts believe that a strong El Niño may begin in the fall. Preliminary estimates suggest a 19% chance that 2026 will become the warmest year in history.
Experts from the Carbon Brief analytical project, studying climate changes and scientific data, based on forecasts from five research groups, believe that 2026 is almost certain to be among the four warmest years. There is also a high likelihood that it will take second place in the ranking of the hottest years.
It is expected that temperatures will gradually rise throughout the year, with maximum values potentially occurring in late fall and the winter period when climate processes intensify.
El Niño is the warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate worldwide. It can cause droughts, floods, marine heatwaves, and other weather anomalies.
The intensity of the phenomenon is measured by the water temperature in the Niño 3.4 region. If the indicator exceeds the norm by more than 0.5 °C, it indicates El Niño, over 1.5 °C marks a strong phase, and more than 2 °C signifies a so-called “super” El Niño.
According to the latest forecasts, by September, the temperature could rise by 2.2 °C above the norm, corresponding to a “super” El Niño scenario. Usually, the peak of such processes occurs between November and January.
If this scenario unfolds, the likelihood that 2027 will become a new record-holder for global temperature will significantly increase.
