With Russia’s economy in a deep crisis over the past year, Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest country, is looking for investors elsewhere. While neighboring China is promising some serious investment projects, some analysts wonder what Tajikistan will have to sacrifice for that friendship.
First Investor in Two Years
Local media is calling China Tajikistan’s “first investor in two years.” In September Chinese president Xi Jinping paid his first official visit to Tajikistan, and Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon gave an informal reception in Jinping’s honor, the first reception Rahmon has ever held for anyone.
The presidents signed 16 documents, according to which China will invest over $6 billion into Tajik economy.
In November Rahmom visited China to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum Dialogue of Partners. More agreements were signed, promising $800 million for Tajik economy. The agreements promise to develop Tajikistan’s agriculture, infrastructure, industrial production and mining spheres.
Safarali Qurbonov, Head of Tajik Economy Ministry’s Department of Development and Investment Activities, says only in 2014 China has already invested $177.38 million into Tajik economy.
“This is the amount provided through various contracts we signed with China last year. This year we signed even more contracts, and China might be the record investor for Tajikistan,” he adds.
“All this contract which signed this year will realize the next year. And may be next year China will be the first investor for Tajikistan, and may be they can make own record”, – Qurbonov said.
Chinese Investment for Chinese Workers
But China is not some angel investor, it has its own interests Shokirjon Hakimov, famous lawyer and Deputy Chairman of Tajik Social Democratic Party says.
“These Chinese project employ primarily Chinese workers. They also use only Chinese equipment, instead of teaching our specialists how to create our own equipment. And this way all the Chinese investment basically returns back to China. In future we have to make sure we insist that at least our people work on such projects, we have so many unemployed in Tajikistan,” he adds.
China Needs Tajik Resources
At the time when Russia’s economy is suffering, and Tajik migrants’ remittances fell lower than ever before, partnering with China is important, but Tajikistan must understand that China is pursuing its own interests, Saimiddin Dustov, Director of Indem Analytical center, says.
Although Tajikistan has more cotton than oil or gas, its geographical position between Turkmenistan and China is meaningful in terms of transport routes.
“China is interested in Tajikistan and the rest of Central Asia for its cheap hydrocarbon and mineral resources. This is also a new market for Chinese labor and new area for Chinese influence,” Dustov says, adding that, unlike Russia with its primarily geopolitical and political interest, China’s interest in Tajikistan is more economic and industrial.
Russia’s Rival
Tajik political scientist Parviz Mullojonov additionally points out that China is starting with economic interests but slowly transforms them into geopolitical ones as well in a rising regional competition with Russia.
“Tajikistan mustn’t be fooled by Chinese money. China has same geopolitical interests in the region the same as Russia. These two are rivals, and the subject for their rivalry is Eurasia,” he says, adding that the only difference is: Russia strengthens its positions through military-security measures, and China does so through massive investments.
Suhrob Sharipov, MP from People’s Democratic Party, another difference between Russia and China is that Russia dictates, while China is being more diplomatic, but “in the end they both want the same – influence in the region”.
