Tajik authorities project that an official exchange rate of the national currency, the somoni (TJS) against the dollar (USD) will slide next year only to 9.70:1
The national borrowing program designed for 2019-2020, in particular, notes that TJS, will fall 3.0 percent against USD in 2019 and an official TJS/USD exchange rate will be 9.7:1 next year.
According to the program, the official TJS/USD exchange rate is projected to be 10.2:1 in 2020 and 10.8 in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry forecasted last year that TJS/USD exchange rate will slide to 10.4:1 in 2018 and to 11.2:1 in 2019.
The current official exchange rate of the somoni against the U.S. dollar set by the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) is 9.42:1.
According to data from Tajik central banks, the official exchange rate of the dollar against the somoni has risen 3.8 percent over the first six months of this year: 0.9 percent increase in April; 1.3 percent increase in May; and 1.6 percent increase in June.
The market purchase rate of the dollar against the somoni over the same six-month period has reportedly risen 4.5 percent.
Over the same period last year, the market purchase rate of the dollar against the somoni had risen 11.7 percent.
Tajikistan saw sharp currency devaluation in July. TJS lost 2.7 percent of its value against the dollar in two days, registering an average market buying rate of the dollar against the somoni 1:9.43 on July 11, up from 1:918 on July 10.
Tajikistan has mainly resorted to “administrative resources” to keep the currency on an even keel.
In December 2015, the National Bank ordered the closure of all unauthorized currency exchange points in the city. After that, only banks were able to perform foreign exchange operations. Anybody found violating this new arrangement could face jail terms of up to nine years. Also, banks are forbidden by law from selling somoni at more than 1.5 percent the rate established by the National Bank.
