The cost of completing the Rogun HPP project for the period up to 2035 is estimated at $6.4 billion. This is stated in the publication of the sovereign rating agency of Tajikistan by the international rating agency Standard & Poor's global ratings.
The rating was prepared on the basis of official information provided to the agency by the relevant ministries and departments of the country.
The document notes that the Government of Tajikistan is negotiating with a consortium of multilateral and bilateral creditors to provide it with a financing package that will cover about 50% of these costs, and another half of the financing is expected to come from the state budget and from the revenues of the hydroelectric power plant under construction.
"The preliminary package of external financing includes $1.73 billion in the form of semi-public loans, $850 million in grants and $390 million in the form of concessional loans," S&P analysts emphasize.
They specify that external financing will become available after the Government of Tajikistan completes the preparation of electricity supply agreements with the governments of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2024-2025.
It is assumed that after the completion of construction works, about 60% of the total volume of generated electricity will be exported to the countries of Central Asia.
The document notes that in 2023, the government of Tajikistan budgeted for the construction of the Rogun HPP in the amount of 2.5 billion somoni ($236 million, 2.0% of GDP), and the volume of expenditures will remain approximately at this level until the completion of the project in 2035.
S&P experts emphasize that the Rogun HPP already generates electricity in the amount of about 10-15% of the total capacity. They expect that the revenue from the sale of electricity will amount to $1.1 billion in 2024-2035 and will be invested in the further construction of this HPP.
S&P experts emphasize that the Rogun HPP already generates electricity in the amount of about 10-15% of the total capacity. They expect that the revenue from the sale of electricity will amount to $1.1 billion in 2024-2035 and will be invested in the further construction of this HPP.
In 2008, when the Rogun project was resumed, its cost was estimated at $3 billion.
In 2016, during the international tender for the selection of a general contractor for the construction of the dam, the cost of the facility was announced at $3.9 billion.
In 2022, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Tajikistan announced that over $5 billion will be required to complete the Rogun.
In early February 2023, the energy department announced that, according to recent estimates, $6.2 billion would be needed to complete this station.
At the same time, during this period, more than 40 billion somoni (about $4 billion) were allocated for the completion of Rogun, including through the sale of shares of JSC Rogun HPP (890 million somoni), Eurobonds ($500 million), and the remainder – at the expense of the state budget.
