Wheat prices in Kazakhstan have once again surged, raising concerns for Tajikistan, which imports over 90% of its wheat from Kazakhstan.
Last week, the price of third-grade wheat with 27% gluten reached 112,000-115,000 tenge (approximately US$216-US$222) per ton, and farmers in southern Kazakhstan are already offering new harvest wheat at 125,000-130,000 tenge/ton without VAT (approximately US$241-US$251).
According to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytical department of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the price increase is due to several factors, including the weakening of the tenge against the US dollar (by 10 tenge in one week), high demand from exporters and processors, decreased wheat stocks, and others.
How will this affect Tajikistan?
Tajikistan imports over 90% of its wheat from Kazakhstan. In 2024, the import volume was about 1 million tons, and in 2025, according to the Customs Service, imports are continuing to rise, with around 349,000 tons valued at more than US$100.4 million.
The price of one ton of wheat for Tajikistan amounted to US$288.3.
According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan's Analytical Committee, from June 16 to June 22, the export prices for wheat, including 12% VAT, were as follows: third-grade wheat was offered at US$210-US$285 per ton, Hi-Pro wheat (with high gluten content) was priced between US$305 and US$310, and fourth-grade wheat ranged from US$203 to US$208 per ton.
Representatives of companies importing wheat into Tajikistan believe the rise in prices in Kazakhstan will inevitably affect the market in Tajikistan. This impact will not only be on wheat itself but also on derivative products such as flour, bread, pasta, and confectionery.
Will prices rise in Tajikistan?
From July 1, flour prices in Kazakhstan will also rise (up to 139.81 tenge per kg, or US$270, +45%). These changes may soon reflect in export prices and, consequently, in the cost of goods in Tajikistan.
Importers may face increased logistics costs as Kazakhstan has raised railway tariffs.
However, thanks to domestic flour and bread production, as well as existing reserves, the situation in Tajikistan may remain stable, at least in the short term.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade’s forecast, Tajikistan’s own wheat production is expected to reach 956,000 tons in 2025. In the previous year, Tajikistan harvested 881,000 tons of wheat.
