Tajikistan’s debt web: who holds the strings?

Tajikistan’s external debt has exceeded $3 billion. Who does the country owe, how serious is the burden, and what can be expected in 2026? Asia-Plus analyzes the current situation and outlook.

As of October 1, 2025, Tajikistan’s total external debt stood at $3.037 billion. Compared to the beginning of the year, when the figure reached $3.188 billion, the debt has decreased by $151 million, or 4.7%.

At the same time, external debt accounts for 17.2% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Is this a cause for concern? Asia-Plus asked prominent Tajik economist Hojimuhammad Umarov.

China remains the main creditor

China is Tajikistan’s largest creditor. According to official data, Dushanbe owes Beijing more than $700 million—over a quarter of the country’s total external debt. Most loans are provided through the Export-Import Bank of China and are directed toward infrastructure projects, including roads and energy facilities.

In addition, Tajikistan has significant obligations to the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), according to the Ministry of Finance.

Structure of external debt

Direct government debt makes up about 95.5% of Tajikistan’s external debt, totaling roughly $2.9 billion. These are loans taken directly by the government, which bears full responsibility for repayment. Funds are typically used for public investment projects and infrastructure development.

External borrowing includes multilateral loans, bilateral loans, and guaranteed loans.

Multilateral loans from international financial institutions, usually offered on concessional terms with low interest rates and long maturities.

Tajikistan’s Bilateral Loans (in million USD)

Bilateral loans between states or national banks, including loans from China’s Exim Bank ($744.81 million) and Germany’s KfW ($16.2 million).

Tajikistan’s Bilateral Loans (USD million)

Guaranteed loans, taken by private entities but backed by state guarantees.

Another component of Tajikistan’s external debt is Eurobonds. In 2017, the country issued its first Eurobonds worth $500 million with a 10-year maturity and a yield of 7.125%.

Debt servicing in 2025

In the first nine months of 2025, Tajikistan spent $377.25 million on servicing external debt. Of this amount, $312.58 million went toward principal repayment and $64.67 million toward interest payments.

During the same period, the country attracted only $109.89 million in new external loans, meaning debt servicing significantly exceeded new borrowing.

Outlook for 2026

The draft 2026 budget suggests the government will continue its current approach. Approximately 5.1 billion somoni (about $548 million) is earmarked for servicing the principal of external debt—more than was spent during the first nine months of 2025.

State-owned enterprises will also contribute. Barqi Tojik is expected to allocate 1.553 billion somonis, the Tajik Aluminum Company 84 million somonis, and Tajik Railways 80.2 million somonis.

Other contributors include Dushanbevodokanal, Tojiktransgaz, Pamir Energy, and utilities enterprises.

At the same time, the government plans to attract more than 6.3 billion somoni (around $678 million) in new loans in 2026 to finance public investment projects. This means old debts will continue to be repaid while new ones are accumulated.

A total of 473 million somoni is planned for repayment of domestic debt, financed through the state budget and revenues from the Ministry of Finance, including proceeds from National Bank assets and the sale of property from liquidated banks.

“No reason for alarm, but risks remain”

According to Professor Umarov, Tajikistan’s external debt level of 17.2% of GDP is not alarming.

“For a developing country, this level is considered normal and even below average. In many transition economies, external debt reaches around 35% of GDP,” he said.

However, Umarov stressed the importance of diversifying borrowing sources and maintaining a balance between external loans and foreign direct investment. He also called for revising Tajikistan’s debt strategy, reducing the state’s dominant role, and improving oversight.

“The Ministry of Finance conducts monitoring, but it is not sufficient. Repayment deadlines are sometimes missed. The country should adopt best practices from more developed economies,” he concluded.