DUSHANBE, April 13, 2010, Asia-Plus — A sharp reduction in workers” remittances mainly due to economic difficulties in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation and weak demand for Tajikistan”s main export commodities of aluminum and cotton were the main factors in slowing Tajikistan”s GDP growth by more than half in 2009, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in a major new report.
“Remittance inflows in 2009 were $1.8 billion, which is about 37% of GDP, a nearly one-third drop from those in 2008. This hit private consumption, import demand, and house construction, especially in rural areas, where many households depend on remittances,” says Makoto Ojiro, ADB”s Country Director for Tajikistan.
ADB”s flagship annual economic publication, Asian Development Outlook 2010 (ADO 2010), released today, says that prospects for Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation will improve in the next two years, and aluminum and cotton prices are also likely to rise. It is also expected that noncotton agriculture will experience healthy growth. In view of these projections, Tajikistan”s economic growth is expected to rise to 4.0% in 2010 and 5.0% in 2011.
“In 2009, inflation in Tajikistan came down to average 6.5% from 20.4% in 2008, and it is projected to be 10.8% and 9.5% in the next 2 years,” says Qahhor Aminov, Economics Officer of the ADB”s office in Tajikistan.
Weak capacity of public institutions, governance, and accountability is the first item on the Tajikistan”s development agenda, followed by successful implementation of the current reform initiatives. Though the government has started to improve the business and investment environment, infrastructure bottlenecks, including chronic wintertime electricity shortages, remain a major challenge.
ADO 2010 includes comprehensive economic analysis of more than 40 economies in developing Asia and the Pacific, and examines aggregate trends and medium-term prospects by subregion— East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central and West Asia, and the Pacific —in the context of global economic movements.
Tajikistan joined ADB in 1998, and to date has received total assistance of about $560 million in concessional loans, grants and technical assistance from this institution.
ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in the Asia and Pacific region through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members – 48 from the region. In 2009, it approved $13.2 billion of loans, $1.1 billion of grant projects, and technical assistance amounting to $267 million.
