DUSHANBE, August 9, 2008, Asia-Plus — Fighting in South Ossetia represents a complex multiaspect phenomenon, Tajik independent expert Rashid Ghani Abdullo said in an interview with Asia-Plus.
“Firstly, the humanitarian aspect – any fighting, involving artillery, tanks and air force, gets civilians into humanitarian disaster,” said the expert, “Deaths and suffering of people, mostly civilians, destruction of well-organized life and the whole life support system, refugee streams – all this is currently present in South Ossetia.”
According to him, there is also the political aspect here, “because actions of South Ossetia’s leadership, in principle, do not differ from actions of Kosovo Albanians.” “In this context, actual support of the Russian leadership for administration of South Ossetia does not differ from support provided by the West to Kosovo Albanians,” Rashid Ghani Abdullo said.
The expert also noted that South Ossetia is unrecognized republic for the central government of Georgia as the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria under Dudayev, Yndarbiyev and Maskhdadov was for the Russian central government. “International community continues considering South Ossetia as integral part of Georgia exactly as it has considered Chechnya as integral part of the Russian Federation,” said Rashid Ghani Abdullo, “If to proceed from this fact, actions of the Georgian authorities differ in no way from actions of the Russian leadership on restoration of constitutional order in Chechnya. No wonder the Georgia leadership is acting in that way, using the same terms to justify its actions against South Ossetia.”
In his opinion, similar situation has already existed or may emerge practically in any of the CIS states – Pridnestrovye in Moldova, Sevastopol or the whole Crimea in Ukraine, Nagorny Karabakh in Azerbaijan, northern regions in Kazakhstan, etc.
“As a matter of fact, heads of the CIS states cannot but understand desire of the Georgian leadership for restoration of territorial integrity of its state,” said he. “Another matter that not all of them, taking into consideration possible negative reaction of Moscow, may express their approval or sympathy evidently. Most likely, they will be talking about the necessity of solving this problem through negotiations, avoiding rigorous wording in contrast to the Russian leadership.”
According to the expert, the latest events in Georgia cannot but draw great attention of the CIS states, because the significant issue is at stake – which of two world powers actively acting within the CIS area is more preferable as strategic political and military partner.
“Degree of preference will be determined by degree of reliability of each of the powers in the capacity of ally and efficiency of political, military and other support provided by it,” said Rashid Ghani Abdullo. “Russia has found itself in more difficult situation. If its support is quite enough and efficient and South Ossetia inflicts a defeat on the Georgian leadership, political sympathy of the CIS state administrations for it will not increase but cooperation with it in the military sphere will become more preferable. But if the Georgian authorities gain a victory, it will be next failure of Russia in its confrontation with the Unite States and the West, and Russia’s efficiency and reliability as strategic political-military ally will turn out to be questionable. Meanwhile, cooperation with the United States in the military sphere will seem more preferable as showing its efficiency.”
In this situation, only Russia’s ability to stop fighting and bring it back to the starting point, with both confronting sides saving their faces, and stimulate the negotiation process “may be of use for it within the CIS area,” the expert said.
