DUSHANBE, April 20, 2009, Asia-Plus — The government gave a 140 million somoni (TJS) credit to cotton farmers last year through banks and they have repaid more than 64 million somoni to this date, Safar Mahmadiyev, the head of the economy and prognosis directorate within the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), told Asia-Plus Monday afternoon.
According to him, more than 101,000 tons of last year’s cotton fiber are still kept in warehouses of the cotton-ginning factories because of the fall in the international price of cotton and in demand for the product. “If farmers sell cotton fiber at the current world prices they will lose up to 50 million somoni,” Mahmadiyev said.
On the new mechanism funding the cotton sector in the country, the expert said, “If the global financial crisis had not hit the sector, cotton farmers would have had very good profit and many of them even would have not had needs in loans for this year.”
In the meantime, in a report released at a press conference in Dushanbe, the First Deputy Agriculture Minister, Rahmonali Amirov, revealed on April 20 that the government has allocated a 180 million somoni loan this year for farming units. This year, the government credit will go to lending production of not only cotton but also other agricultural crops, he said.
We will recall that 200,700 hectares of lands have been allocated for cotton growing this year, which is 36 hectares fewer than in 2008.
As it had been reported earlier, Tajikistan may abandon the practice of forcing unproductive farms to grow cotton this year in order to fulfill government quotas. Speaking at a press conference in Dushanbe on January 22, 2009, Agriculture Minister Qosim Qosimov said the government would help farmers make the change from cotton to other crops more suitable to their circumstances. According to him, farms producing less than 2.5 tons of cotton per hectare should not be compelled to grow it.
The Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) issued the First Cotton Price Forecast for 2009/10 (China Chemical Fibers and Textiles Consultancy, April 3, 2009). The ICAC Secretariat forecasts a 2009/10 season-average Cotlook A Index of 63 cents per pound, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 56 to 79 cents per pound. However, major uncertainties regarding projected cotton trade in 2009/10 pose substantial downward risks to this forecast. The Secretariat of the ICAC believes that the 2009/10 season-average Cotlook A Index is more likely to be within the range of 56 to 63 cents per pound. In 2009/10, world cotton production is expected to continue to decline, for the third consecutive season, to 23.6 million tons. World cotton mill use is forecast stable at 23.7 million tons in 2009/10, while world cotton imports are expected to increase to 7.3 million tons. World ending stocks are expected to decline slightly to 12.5 million tons by the end of July 2010.
