DUSHANBE, August 22, 2012, Asia-Plus — The CIS Statistical Agency has reported 7.4 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Tajikistan for the first six months of 2012 and consumption remains the main driver of this growth, Ms. Elvira Kurmanaliyeva, the chairperson of the country analysis department within the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), told Asia-Plus in an interview.
“A 12 percent industrial growth has been reported for January-June this year and this growth has been provided mostly by textile and sewing production (1.9 times rise) and food industry (4.5 percent rise),” Kurmanaliyeva noted.
She, however, noted that Tajikistan could face a certain economic slowdown in the short-term perspective – the growth rate may fall from 7.4 percent in 2011 to 6.0-6.5 percent this year.
“This is connected with, first of all, a general slowdown in the global economy, in particular slowdown in the economies of Tajikistan’s key trade partners the main destination countries fro Tajik labor migrants,” a senior expert from the EDB noted.
According to him, the consumption sphere – trade, construction sector and service industries, which in their turn, strongly depend on remittances from abroad – has been the main driver of Tajikistan’s economy in recent years.
“One of positive moments of the latest trends is resumption of production growth in the metallurgical industry – 1.3 percent rise has been reported over the first six months of this year,” the expert stressed.
She added that the short-term risks for Tajikistan’s economy included considerable payments on the external debt, weakness of the country’s banking system, insufficient diversification of the country’s exports and considerable dependence of Tajikistan’s economy on external recipients.
Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial organization founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006. The members of the Bank are Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Tajikistan and Belarus (2010). Other states or international organizations can become members by joining the Agreement Establishing the EDB. The Bank has authorized capital in exceeds US$1.5 billion, which was formed of contributions by its member states: Russia (US$1billion), Kazakhstan (US$500 million), Armenia (US$100,000), Tajikistan (US$500,000) and Belarus (US$15 million). The authorized capital may be increased by resolution of the Bank’s Council. The Bank has the status of an international organization, and is subject to international law.
