DUSHANBE, September 17, Asia-Plus — Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and
Early Warning (MEW) Report notes that wheat prices are expected to remain stable or even fall in Tajikistan this month as local harvests and regional imports are continuing to arrive onto Tajik market.
According to the report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently revised its wheat production forecast for Kazakhstan, and now anticipates slightly below-average harvests starting in September 2014. This coupled with atypically low carryover stocks (due to strong exports in 2013 and early 2014) may result in rising prices later this calendar year.
Over the first six months of this year, 371.8 million tons of grain at an average price of 299.00 U.S. dollars per ton and 94,700 tons of wheat flour at an average price of 410.00 U.S. dollars per ton have been imported into the country, which is 26.1 percent more grain and 8.1 percent less flour compared to the same period of the previous year.
In August, prices for wheat flour decreased insignificantly in the markets of the country in comparison with July. As of September 5, 2014, the average price of a 50-kilogram sack of first grade flour of domestic production at Dushanbe’s bazaars was 139.50 somoni (equivalent to 28.1 USD), and the price for a 50-kilogram sack of first grade flour produced in Kazakhstan was 140.50 somoni (equivalent to 28.6 USD).
Meanwhile FAO”s monthly
Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
, released on September 11, has upped the Organization”s forecast for 2014 world cereal production by 14 million tons. At 2.5 billion tones (including rice in milled terms), the new projection would be 0.5 percent (13 million tons) short of last year”s record.
More optimistic wheat forecasts were mostly behind the revision in cereal production compared to last month, the report says. Wheat production is now expected to reach 716.5 million tons — also just shy of last year”s record harvest. Wheat crops in China, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States are now projected to be larger than previously anticipated.
